Automakers have done the right thing in building JV battery cell plants aka Megafactory / Gigafactory
But the lack of strategy or focus on the up streaming in doing the same for key raw materials - lithium and nickel esp - will come back to haunt the automotive industry
It’s of course just the start and not the end. But 2022 to 2026 won’t be pretty as electric vehicle models attempt to come to market at an ever decreasing cost
You can’t make an EV without a lithium ion battery. And you can’t make lithium ion battery without lithium
And all at the right quantities and qualities.
Some of the most obvious statements are usually the ones ignored.
> Naturally OEMs are baulking at the idea of rising cell prices
> Where lithium prices are at and heading there will be some pain for EV makers and no real short term fix unless supply is already locked into a contract a a fixed price
> Negotiations are well underway between Chinese cell makers and autos
> All battery price rises coming from Chinese 🇨🇳 makers at present; interesting to see how the South Korea 🇰🇷 majors react
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In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.
My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t
There are a few reasons…
This time there are more buyers than in 2016.
There are still not enough sellers: miners, refiners.
Demand for lithium is outstripping the rate supply is growing by double.
The wall of EV demand for lithium continued to build, esp 2026 and beyond.
Right now the lithium industry is responding in real time, in many ways, and isn’t addressing a massive demand issue that we face towards the latter end of the decade.
For this massive investment would be needed or DLE breakthroughs to help close the supply demand gap.
<thread> My third testimony to the US Senate, June 2020: key points
China is building the equivalent of one battery megafactory a week, the United States one every four months.
In that time, we have witnessed a global battery arms race and watched the world’s number of supersized battery plants – known as battery megafactories or gigafactories – go from 17 to 142 [now 167]
Lithium ion batteries are a core platform technology for the 21st century.
They allow our energy to be stored on a widespread basis in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and they spark the demand for the critical raw materials and chemicals.
[@benchmarkmin thread] Pertinent points on Tesla’s plan for produce lithium, the first auto maker to do so....
New lithium hydroxide facility expect to be co-located next to Terafactory in Austin
Tesla will build the USA’s first battery materials hub which in addition to lithium is expected to include cathode and nickel chemical production feeding into 4680 battery cell production