Thread by @BambroughKevin

Making a major call here in Nasdaq.

Today’s tech bubble is extremely similar to the bubble of 2000 only greater and it’s extremely close to peaking. $TSLA will be the stock the marks the top of this cycle in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/stokdog/status/1455273649766690822

“Cisco's price surged to nearly $80 at the apex of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, making it the most valuable company in the world with a market cap of $500 billion”

Yes kids! Cisco systems. 21 years later it trades with a p/e of 22 and a 2.6% div yield / market cap ~$240bln

Cisco $Csco was the tech darling bubble stock of that era. Great company, great products, great future. But it was a bubble stock. Still went down more than 90% from its bubble blow off high. I think it hit $5 a few years later. Great growth. Still an industry leader

And it’s still 1/2 the market cap of the peak 21 years ago. This will be the $TSLA future. Morons own the stock. Period. People with zero understanding of economics, stock valuations, margin compression over time, competition in the manufacturing industry. Etc

Many very smart people have lost huge sums of money trying to short it. Many brilliant people are short it today. $TSLA represents a bad of the wills and market control and who has dominance. Tech bubble bulls or longterm minded bears.

The valuation and chart of $TSLA is now so extreme everyone wants to short it. It’s expensive to borrow. The put premiums are crazy pricey. Nearly everyone who understands stock markets well realizes that it’s a total bubble stock. But most, self included are scared to short it

We know the traders squeezing that stock are complete uninformed morons and gamblers. Zero sense at all of how to value the company. It’s trading like a crypto shit. It’s simply going up cause it is. Holders don’t want to sell, shorts keep getting squeezed. It’s a pure cult fav

There’s many signs that it and many key Nasdaq stocks are peaking. (FYI I nailed the short of tech in 2000) some time I’ll lay out more parallels. There’s many. But, we are now close in time and $TSLA is one to watch. I won’t short it but when you see it blow off and want to play

The ‘safer’ root will be qqq short and I think the ‘Sprott’ trade will be back on. I joined Sprott back in 2002 cause I agreed with Eric that play of the decade was short the market long resources. (He was more gold centric when I joined)

Anyhow. Lots of commodities and commodity stocks have run. But I think a very good pair is short QQQ and long gold/silver. We are close enough. Only chance in hell that $TSLA or other bubble stock have a shot at treading water is with more QE, zero rates and massive gov spending

Last point, $csco is down about 50% since that bubble peak. Well gold was around $300/oz at that time and despite the ‘crap’ performance of late it’s still up 6x over the same time period. So relative performance of 12x

Take not $TSLA cult followers. Add up the total value of your shitty bubble stocks today. Imagine yourself 20 years old and that value down 50% or up 6x.

This tweet is for my kids friends that trade stocks. Btw. (18-22 year olds) I hope to be around in 2040 and 70 years old

Hope you look back at this tweet and it helped you provide for your children and you can enjoy a nice vacation with them. I’m down in the islands today on a trip with my son who’s now 18 and just moved his savings into his first brokerage account. :)

Damn typos. 20 years older. Take note today! Good night !