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Anas Alhajji Profile picture
@anasalhajji
Nov 3, 2021 • 8 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Thread of 8 Charts on the oil politics between the Biden Administration and OPEC! Looks like a story!
#Oil #OPEC #Biden #OOTT #COP26
1-8 I am using IEA demand numbers so no one can say OPEC numbers are self-serving.
2-8
Notice that the demand gap shown in the IEA chart above is bigger than the OPEC production gap!
#OPEC #Oil
3-8
Saudi crude oil production is almost back to normal and will exceed 2019 levels soon.
#SaudiArabia
4-8
If the Biden administration is worried about gasoline prices, it should support US refineries! Or at least investigate why they are not back to 2018 levels!
#Refining #OOTT
5-8 The Biden Administration should also look into this: Why isn't US crude oil production back to normal?
#Shale
6-8
 Despite a major decline in US crude oil production, crude exports remain relatively strong.

Dare anyone think reinstating the export ban will solve any problems.
#Shale #Exports #ExportBan #Biden #Obama
7-8 No comment (Although I just did 😂)
#Russia
8-8
the US does not even depend on OPEC that much.
While asking OPEC to increase production will not solve any immediate problems pointing fingers will backfire. OPEC officials can point fingers too. That is called "Oil Politics"!
Welcome to my world! #OOTT

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More from @anasalhajji

Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Mar 5, 2023
Thread
1-9 EIA investigation of the adjustment & the results are all about “data quality.” @EIA_One tweeted a chart showing that the adjustment factor grew with exports since 2016.
I have been talking about data quality since 2017 & I created the hashtag: #Data_Quality_Matters
2-9 Mr. @EIA_One stated that the investigation led to two causes of the rise in adjustment: exports & production. Here is a tweet from June 6, 2019:
“The growing adjustment factor (something exaggerated: production or exports)”
Also, notice the hashtag
3-9 I am going down memory lane of this “data quality” to show you that some of the results of the investigation are really old news! EIA gets crude export data from the Census bureau!
This form October 2019:
Read 9 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Jan 20, 2023
Short Thread
Let us go along with what some pundits are saying:
Global oil demand will peak soon & then decline:

1-4 That doesn't mean lower oil prices. It might mean, among various scenarios, ever-increasing prices. Remember, prices are about demand & S U P P L Y! #Oil
2-4 Oil investment is needed no matter what because of the declining rates in the fields. Even at 75 mb/d in 2050, all of it has to be new oil. We literally need trillions of dollars in upstream investment if oil demand declines. Imagine if NO decline!
3-4 The idea that oil companies will go bankrupt & the economies of the oil-producing countries will collapse if oil demand peaks are nonsense. Oil under the declining scenario might end up more precious than ever: the supply reaction to the idea of declining demand is large.
Read 4 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Dec 19, 2022
Thread on Turkey’s Energy Ambitions & Regional Dominance
1-18 President Erdoğan gave an energy-focused speech last Friday in a ceremony for the capacity expansion of the Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facility, which reached 4.6 billion cubic meters (162.45 bcf).
2-18 The speech highlights several energy policy issues, provides some interesting data, and most importantly, highlights the two issues that we focused on in this week's and last week’s newsletters: Relations with Russia and the desire to be a gas hub.
anasalhajjieoa.substack.com
3-18 Below are translated excerpts from the speech (from medyanotu.com ):
- “Silivri has become the largest underground gas storage facility in Europe.”
#Turkey #Natgas #Russia #Europe
Read 18 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Dec 17, 2022
1- The Biden Administration has the right to refill the SPR as it sees fit… but to flip the story and say we sold the oil at $96 and now we are buying it in the low $70s, therefore we are making money for the taxpayer is the worst story they can tell about the SPR.
2- from an accounting point of view, adjusted for inflation, the SPR oil that was sold at $96 in today’s dollars was sold at a very large loss. Some of the oil was sold at 40 cents on the dollar.
3- The most important stories of the SPR are:

A. it prevented oil prices from going above $140/b

B. then it lowered prices significantly worldwide, not only in the US.
Now count the economic growth benefits from that

C. It curbed Putin’s influence significantly
Read 4 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Nov 21, 2022
Thread on OPEC
For those who are attacking OPEC. Hear me out:
1-9 I am a strong believer in free markets. Yet, natural resource economics dictate that natural resources need market management

2-9 Where did the idea of #OPEC come from?
Yep.. Texas Railroad Commission!
#Oil #OOTT
3-9 Just so you know in case you have no idea, Oklahoma and Texas used the armed national guards to occupy privately owned oil fields so both states can manage the oil market! This happened in the United States of America!
4-9 Has the US federal government managed the oil market? Yes, and for a long time via different means. For example, the US federal government adopted a communist-style price control that controlled all energy prices throughout the 1970s.
cato.org/commentary/rem…
Read 8 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Nov 16, 2022
Thread 🩸

1- To think #Russia & #oil traders have not prepared for the Dec 5 deadline is naive.. however, everyone wants to take advantage of the weeks and days before the deadline.. activities increase, then decline, making the deadline looks more effective than reality #Russia
2- Remember:
A- the December 5 deadline is for crude only … not petroleum products

B- Five European countries are exempt in one way or the other

Question: do sanctions apply to oil via rails and trucks? 😳👿
3- Russia has already built the infrastructure to do what Iran has done for years, but on a larger scale… the ban and the price cap applies only to “official” imports…
Read 4 tweets

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