Thread by @RickPalaciosJr

Over the last few months I’ve spoken with dozens of real estate & mortgage industry executives, trying to gauge what impact (if any) #crypto is having on the #housing market. Here’s what I’ve concluded. (1/) realestateconsulting.com/bubblicious-cr…

The number of home buyers w/documented crypto accounts has risen from ~0% one year ago to between 5% & 10% today. Platforms such as @coinbase $COIN were noted most often in my conversations, with $BTC & $ETH common plays. (2/)

It's more difficult tracking the % of home buyers using crypto gains towards the down payment on a home purchase. Most mortgage lenders & home builders estimate ~5% or less. However...(3/)

On occasion, 10% to 15% of home buyers are using crypto gains towards down payment on home, namely in higher price points &/or communities w/younger buyers more familiar w/crypto. (4/)

Housing industry executives I spoke w/anecdotally estimate the % of home buyers using crypto gains towards home purchase is HIGHER than what's getting flagged. Why??? (5/)

Most home buyers don't disclose crypto accounts, as it's voluntary & not required. (6/)

Most mortgage lenders don't have a consistent process for flagging crypto accounts during underwriting, given the industry's nascent state. (7/)

Most home buyers liquidate crypto gains WELL ahead of home purchase so that funds appear 'seasoned'. Typically parked in checking or savings account for 2-3 months. (8/)

All of this makes deciphering crypto gains from typical savings or stock sales almost impossible when it comes to down payment sources. (9/)

Clearly, the inflating of today's crypto bubble has at the margin helped inflate other asset classes like housing. (10/)

Today’s ephemeral effervescence isn’t sustainable, & the inevitable deflating should be a scenario in your outlook playbook; it certainly is in ours. (11/)

Just as a youth staring through the pink film of Bubblicious bubbles expanding in unison before my eyes, I know the ecstasy is fleeting. (12/THE END)