Some new data & market commentary on who's buying land from our 3Q-2021 land broker survey. Build-for-rent operators snapping up 15% of raw land in #Florida & outbidding home builders on deals across many markets. Couple charts & market commentary to follow...
Here's the chart where we asked land brokers if they've observed build-for-rent operators outbidding home builders on land deals in their market. 46% said 'yes' when we rolled it up nationally, and as high as 77% in the Southeast.
#Phoenix land broker: “A lot of speculators in the build-for-rent space that are tying properties up & going through entitlement process, then flipping the property for an increased price. Equity requirements for the build-for-rent projects are getting larger.”
#SaltLakeCity land broker: “Build-for-rent groups are starting to flood the market but are not yet out-competing builders.”
#RaleighDurham land broker: “Possibly the most active land market in the country. One build-for-rent group has 4 deals under contract & many others are looking. We just had our first example of a build-for-rent buyer outbidding the builders.”
#Tampa land broker: “Just a parade of build-for-rent, but they sometimes compete on suburban sites against conventional 3–4 story apartment developers who are paying big bucks (2–3 times what they paid 2–3 years ago).”
#Atlanta land broker: “Noticed an increase in investment funds entering the Atlanta metropolitan area. They’re buying entire build-for-rent subdivisions at various stages of completion to rapidly expand their inventory of homes to rent.”
#Savannah land broker: “A number of institutional developers of ‘for rent’ townhome / cottage communities has driven up land prices.”
#Nashville land broker: “More & more build-for-rent buyers entering market.”
#Minneapolis land broker: “Apartment developers are competing with home builders for townhome land to build single-family rental or townhome rental product.”
#OrangeCounty land broker: “We are seeing build-for-rent outbidding builders occur in less expensive markets like the Inland Empire.”
#RiversideSanBernardino land broker: “Build-for-rent guys are looking at deals builders don't desire. Attached, No CFD (Community Facilities District) properties.” THE END
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Yesterday's Fed Beige Book commentary on #wages was pretty eye-opening. I'm hearing this daily across housing sector, but definitely spiking across the board.
Just published September home builder survey results (sales, prices, costs, communities, etc.). Big themes: 1) Supply chain, supply chain, supply chain. 2) Monthly price hikes no longer the norm. 3) Some of the hottest markets sounding toppy. Market commentary to follow…
#Austin builder: “No end in sight for labor & material issues. Told by logistics guy last week that his company believes it will take at least a year to get the supply chain back to working.”
#Austin builder: “Availability of windows has limited closings this year & availability of appliances has caused closings to slide to a later month. Availability of paint is stressing Q4 closings & causing even more bunching toward late in the year.”
Companies tied to housing revising guidance due to supply chain. Commentary from our builder survey this month indicates things getting worse before they get better. Homes sitting, waiting for materials (dead days). Big delays in windows. Delta outbreaks. In sum, a crapshoot. 🧵
#Nashville builder: “It's a crap shoot. Some municipalities will issue permits in 1 week, & others are 6-9 months behind. Supply chain is a mess. Windows are now 7 months out, cabinets are 6 months out, etc.”
#Chicago builder: “Build cycle increased due to backordered materials including bathtubs, appliances, & ceramic tile. Trades are much more limited in availability & now have some ‘dead days’ with no activity.”
Just surveyed ~400 pro remodelers. Top 4 themes: 1) Big remodels all the rage; 2) Many remodelers are booked until 2022+; 3) Product lead times & labor shortages still bad (see chart); 4) Homeowners fixing & staying put, not selling. Commentary from across country to follow…
#Texas remodeler: “I can’t grow with 20 week lead times on basic products. I started asking my suppliers what products are easiest to install. I don’t have enough labor to spend more time installing a touchless faucet than absolutely necessary.”
#Texas design-build firm: “My clients are essentially flipping their homes, but they aren’t selling. They want something fresh & new.”
Just surveyed 6,000+ real estate agents across country. Top themes from our 1st ever RESALE agent survey: 1) Buyer fatigue, w/rumblings of remorse. 2) Bidding wars a bit less bonkers. 3) Cash is King & ton of investors. 4) Inventory gridlock. Commentary across country to follow…
#LosAngeles agent: “20-minute allotted home viewing time slots with offers due next day by noon, & buyers are asked to give up every contingency under the sun.”
#NYC agent: “Luxury home buyers feel the market is overpriced & have backed off.”
Doing monthly review of our macro housing/econ 350+slide deck. Five charts grabbing my attention for August:
1/5: Home price appreciation finally leveling off. Blue line is our national index, which appears to have peaked at +20% YOY last two months.
2/5: Similar story on new home prices according to builders we survey across the country. Rate of YOY price increases tapering off a bit in July at +19% YOY.
3/5: Our Google apartment search proxy keeps hitting new highs. No real seasonal blip so far in 2021, which is showing up in crazy rent growth figures currently.