Giri Profile picture
26 Nov, 11 tweets, 6 min read
More actions points can be following :-
1. Since day of 1st case of #Omicron #B.1.1.529, establish travel history & identify secondary transmission throughout world. If primary case was in early November, not difficult to miss areas of circulation.
1ofn who.int/news/item/26-1…
2. Botswana, South Africa & Hong Kong cannot be the only areas where #Omicron has travelled. These areas are the ones that have probably better surveillance and genomic sequencing and hence have reported in timely manner. Absence of reporting is not absence of circulation.
2 of n
3. Imposing travel restrictions, restricting entry from few countries is NOT going to help either prevent or control the spread of #Omicron. It’s akin to closing stable door after horse has bolted. Instead, identify cluster of cases of recent origin & do genomic sequencing.
3/n
4. The world failed in expanding vaccine Coverage of Vulnerable population across globe. This led to development of #Omicron.

Is there any doubt that more variants will be there in future? NO

Do the rich countries change the course of action? Sadly and Disgustingly, NO.

4/n
Instead, rich countries will quickly get updated mRNA vaccine against #Omicron. With boosters & updated vaccines, firms will be happy to stay in rich countries and expand the production line with greater profits. None of these actions will prevent newer variants in future.
5 of n
5. Congratulations to agencies which picked up #Omicron. Strong #surveillance for COVID19 (epidemiological + genomic) can detect outbreaks. Regions have turned from <1 to 30% test positivity in 3 weeks.
Watch out for any area with cluster of cases.
6 of n
6. Similar to ambitious aim of global elimination of covid19, updating #mRNA vaccines against each variant is a futile goal. While resources are used for this false sense of security; cannot keep pace with relentless circulation elsewhere leading to next variant of virus.
7 o n
7. Assuming that primary case of #Omicron was in month of November, investigating clusters in past month would not be that difficult.
How to find?
-Cluster of cases +
-Positive Genomic sequencing results +/-
-Travel history to other country

8 of n
I had written earlier (Feb 18, 2021) that higher circulation anywhere is a threat everywhere; it will result in more variants of concern.
thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/…

Strengthening pandemic preparedness (and surveillance as a component) is imperative global priority.
9 of n
Finally, expanding vaccination to poor countries & every susceptible person is not an act of charity that we need to demand, it is an absolute necessity.

The newer variants of #SARSCoV2 are reflecting the gross neglect of #equity like no time earlier. How long can we pretend?
n

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More from @epigiri

17 Nov
Brilliant study done in China, If scaled up, blood pressure reduction (-26.3 mmHg) achieved by training lay health workers can reduce significant mortality in LMICs.

abstractsonline.com/pp8/?_ga=2.141…
-Globally, >17.9 million people die each year CVDs.
-Hypertension related CVDs contribute a significant proportion
-Chinese study shows some of these deaths & disability are preventable.
-Train lay village workers in BP measurement, counseling & provide affordable drugs.
-In India, @docraghu8 et al showed overall estimated prevalence for hypertension in India was 29.8%.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P

- A study showed 44.7% Indians are aware of their diagnosis, 13.3% are treated, & 7.9% have achieved control.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct
Sudden cardiac arrest & Sudden cardiac death (SCD) refer to the sudden cessation of cardiac activity with hemodynamic collapse, typically due to sustained ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation; mostly occur in patients with previously undiagnosed diseaes.
1 of N
Results from Framingham heart study suggests that more men are affected with increasing age.
Not rare, 15 percent of the total mortality in the United States & other developed nations is due to SCD. (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11684624/)

2 of N https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000287039
-It is the initial clinical manifestation of 15% of coronary heart diseases (CHD).
-SCD is the mechanism of death in over 60% of patients with known CHD.
-Risk increases by a number of factors: Age, underlying cardiac diseases, post-menopausal women, CHD risk factors
3 of N
Read 20 tweets
12 Aug
This tweet thread is about the results from the second serosurvey done in the #Karnataka state. Ahead of sharing the link, some caveats first.
1. The @DHFWKA has used the data from this round of serosurvey in late March to update testing and surveillance strategies.

1 of N
2. The study found Lower levels of IgG seroprevalence, mostly due to antibody waning.
3. A substudy was done to confirm the antibody waning. This study was delayed due to rapid surge of cases in April.
4. We found near 0 prevalence of active cases during mid-February 2021.
2/n
5. There was a subsequent surge seen in Karnataka state due to a mix of alpha, delta which was picking up speed in April, and a large susceptible population were infected.
6. Results from the substudy on antibody waning was necessary for releasing the final report & paper.
3/n
Read 8 tweets
2 Aug
Polio anywhere could be a threat to countries that had eradicated it. It took decades to eradicate polio in most parts while some are yet to eradicate. Not just this necessity, it was possible mostly due to a collaborative approach & strong leadership at the global level.
1/N
Lessons from Polio Eradiation, Cochi S et al
-Strong political & social support in each country
-Strategic planning & policy development
-Partnership management & donor coordination
-Program operations & tactics
-Oversight and independent monitoring.

polioeradication.org/wp-content/upl…

2/N
If there was high polio circulation in one region, other countries could prevent the possibilities of its import by vaccinating the children in their countreis. Therefore, all countries are continuing polio vaccination till other regions accomplish eradication.

3/N
Read 11 tweets
31 Jul
One and half years without school is a great toll on the children. The difficult part is to answer how to reopen schools with strict enforcement of #COVID appropriate behaviours. How can schools be made safe and protected bubbles for children?
School transmission varies according to student age and incidence in the local areas. The outbreaks in the school settings are substantially reduced with mitigation measures. Regular testing, teacher and staff vaccination can help reduce transmission.
acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.73…
As per the ECDC, there is very little possibility that schools are not associated with accelerating community transmission.
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…

However, large outbreaks can occur within 2 weeks of school reopening as per this Israel study.
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
Read 5 tweets
6 Jun
Source: @jeevanrakshaa @Mysore_Sanjeev

The 7-Day Moving Growth Rate
-#Mumbai: < 2% for over 4 weeks, city ready phase 4?

-#Delhi & #Ahmedabad: <2% for 2 weeks.Phase 2 or 3?

-#Bengaluru, #Chennai & #Kolkata: little over 2% Phase 1?

Phases 1-4:

1ofN
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is increasing.
Why?
CFR= # Deaths / # Positive cases
- ↑ in numerator: Poor detection and treatment --> higher deaths
- Low Denominator ↓: Under-reporting of COVID Cases due to poor testing.

Higher the CFR in the city, poorer the TTT strategy.

2ofN
The review of positive Cases, active Cases, and death moving growth rate in juxtaposition will give wholistic view on the situation.
#Bengaluru & #Delhi have some work to do.

3 of N
Read 7 tweets

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