New: Virginia special masters' map eliminates Abigail Spanberger's (D) current suburban Richmond #VA07 & turns it into a safe Dem seat in Northern Virginia. Rep. Elaine Luria's #VA02 would remain highly competitive, for a 6D-4R-1C split overall.
By the numbers, this might be a slightly better map for Dems than the current one (5D-4R-2C), but much better for Republicans than had Democrats retained redistricting power and drawn an 8D-3R gerrymander.
This map would force Spanberger to move from the Richmond suburbs to Northern Virginia to keep a seat (the northern end of the current #VA07 is folded into Wexton's #VA10).
And, Rep. Elaine Luria's (D) #VA02 gets redder by losing Norfolk. It moves from Biden +5 to +2.
Like the current map, this map would be 7-4 Biden but 6-5 Youngkin. The main difference: #VA10 Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) becomes a narrow Youngkin seat and Spanberger's #VA07, relocated to Prince William Co., becomes a McAuliffe seat.
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NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps
First, the five biggest "losers" in this draft (which will change before 12/27):
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +10 #CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +9 #CA40 Roybal-Allard (D) - seat eliminated #CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +9 #CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +1
Next, other "losers" who would be at heightened risk:
#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +5 #CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +13 #CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to Tied #CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +4 #CA49 Levin (D) - Biden +13 to +9 #CA53 Jacobs (D) - Biden +36 to +8
NEW: FL's Senate Rs release four draft congressional maps. Bizarre: these maps shore up #FL27 Rep. Maria Salazar (R), but otherwise are barely gerrymanders. By my count these maps break down 16-12 Trump-Biden, vs. 15-12 today. Is this a head fake?
These maps would put #FL15 Rep. Scott Franklin (R) in the new safe R #FL28, but turn #FL15 into a *Biden* seat in the east Tampa suburbs - effectively creating a new Dem seat. I can't imagine this is going to be the ultimate GOP plan in FL.
What's more, the map keeps #FL07 Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) and #FL13 Rep. Charlie Crist (D) in Biden seats, even though Rs could turn them into double-digit Trump districts. I'd be very surprised if Tallahassee Rs settle for this.
Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city.
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (North):
#CA01 LaMalfa (R) - Trump +15 to +6 #CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +8 #CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +4 #CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1 #CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +9 #CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (South):
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12 #CA36 Ruiz (D) - Biden +14 to +8 #CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +8 #CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +15 #CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to Trump +1 #CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +6
Breaking: as predicted, IL Dems have revised their proposal to a safer, more aggressive 14D-3R gerrymander. It's still about as ugly as before, though. google.com/maps/d/viewer?…
As I hinted last Sunday, this version creates a new, much-anticipated Latino seat (#IL03) on the north side of Chicago. But, it would do so by merging the homes of Reps. Marie Newman (D) and Sean Casten (D) in a reconfigured #IL06.
This version also (very blatantly) merges the homes of Reps. Mary Miller (R) and Mike Bost (R) in a new #IL12, and puts Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s house into Rep. Bobby Rush (D)'s plurality Black #IL01 (!).
VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal...
If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable.
But if the commission fails, the VA Supreme Court's direction is unknown. It could easily make #VA07 redder, and perhaps #VA02 too.
In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state!