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22 Dec, 4 tweets, 3 min read
BREAKING: here’s the new NJ congressional map that throws #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) under the bus and shores up Reps. Andy Kim (D) #NJ03, Josh Gottheimer (D) #NJ05 and Millie Sherrill (D) #NJ11 for a likely 9D-3R split.
*Mikie, not Millie (damn autocorrect)
Meaningful partisan shifts in this new map:

#NJ03 Kim (D) - Trump +0.2 to Biden +14
#NJ05 Gottheimer (D) - Biden +5 to Biden +12
#NJ07 Malinowski (D) - Biden +10 to Biden +4
#NJ11 Sherrill (D) - Biden +7 to Biden +17
Another winner in this map: #NJ02 Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R), who picks up more of Ocean Co. and moves from Trump +3 to Trump +5, likely nuking any chance Dems have of defeating him.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
20 Dec
NEW: California's near-final draft map looks terrific for Dems. All 42 Dem incumbents (except retiring Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D), whose Long Beach seat is folded in w/ LA Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)'s), get strong seats.

Meanwhile, *five* of 11 GOP seats get more vulnerable.
Biggest winners on this draft map:

#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +18
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to +11
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +2
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 (unchanged)
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to +12
Biggest losers on this draft map:

#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +2
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +13
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12
#CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to +1
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +6
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
8 Dec
New: Virginia special masters' map eliminates Abigail Spanberger's (D) current suburban Richmond #VA07 & turns it into a safe Dem seat in Northern Virginia. Rep. Elaine Luria's #VA02 would remain highly competitive, for a 6D-4R-1C split overall.
By the numbers, this might be a slightly better map for Dems than the current one (5D-4R-2C), but much better for Republicans than had Democrats retained redistricting power and drawn an 8D-3R gerrymander.
This map would force Spanberger to move from the Richmond suburbs to Northern Virginia to keep a seat (the northern end of the current #VA07 is folded into Wexton's #VA10).

And, Rep. Elaine Luria's (D) #VA02 gets redder by losing Norfolk. It moves from Biden +5 to +2.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
11 Nov
NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps ImageImage
First, the five biggest "losers" in this draft (which will change before 12/27):

#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +10
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +9
#CA40 Roybal-Allard (D) - seat eliminated
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +9
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +1
Next, other "losers" who would be at heightened risk:

#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +5
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +13
#CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to Tied
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +4
#CA49 Levin (D) - Biden +13 to +9
#CA53 Jacobs (D) - Biden +36 to +8
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
10 Nov
NEW: FL's Senate Rs release four draft congressional maps. Bizarre: these maps shore up #FL27 Rep. Maria Salazar (R), but otherwise are barely gerrymanders. By my count these maps break down 16-12 Trump-Biden, vs. 15-12 today. Is this a head fake?
These maps would put #FL15 Rep. Scott Franklin (R) in the new safe R #FL28, but turn #FL15 into a *Biden* seat in the east Tampa suburbs - effectively creating a new Dem seat. I can't imagine this is going to be the ultimate GOP plan in FL.
What's more, the map keeps #FL07 Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) and #FL13 Rep. Charlie Crist (D) in Biden seats, even though Rs could turn them into double-digit Trump districts. I'd be very surprised if Tallahassee Rs settle for this.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
2 Nov
Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city.
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
27 Oct
First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (North):

#CA01 LaMalfa (R) - Trump +15 to +6
#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +8
#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +4
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +9
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (South):

#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12
#CA36 Ruiz (D) - Biden +14 to +8
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +8
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +15
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to Trump +1
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +6
Read 4 tweets

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