BREAKING: here’s the new NJ congressional map that throws #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) under the bus and shores up Reps. Andy Kim (D) #NJ03, Josh Gottheimer (D) #NJ05 and Millie Sherrill (D) #NJ11 for a likely 9D-3R split.
*Mikie, not Millie (damn autocorrect)
Meaningful partisan shifts in this new map:

#NJ03 Kim (D) - Trump +0.2 to Biden +14
#NJ05 Gottheimer (D) - Biden +5 to Biden +12
#NJ07 Malinowski (D) - Biden +10 to Biden +4
#NJ11 Sherrill (D) - Biden +7 to Biden +17
Another winner in this map: #NJ02 Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R), who picks up more of Ocean Co. and moves from Trump +3 to Trump +5, likely nuking any chance Dems have of defeating him.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Redistrict

20 Dec
NEW: California's near-final draft map looks terrific for Dems. All 42 Dem incumbents (except retiring Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D), whose Long Beach seat is folded in w/ LA Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)'s), get strong seats.

Meanwhile, *five* of 11 GOP seats get more vulnerable.
Biggest winners on this draft map:

#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +18
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to +11
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +2
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 (unchanged)
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to +12
Biggest losers on this draft map:

#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +2
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +13
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12
#CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to +1
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +6
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec
New: Virginia special masters' map eliminates Abigail Spanberger's (D) current suburban Richmond #VA07 & turns it into a safe Dem seat in Northern Virginia. Rep. Elaine Luria's #VA02 would remain highly competitive, for a 6D-4R-1C split overall.
By the numbers, this might be a slightly better map for Dems than the current one (5D-4R-2C), but much better for Republicans than had Democrats retained redistricting power and drawn an 8D-3R gerrymander.
This map would force Spanberger to move from the Richmond suburbs to Northern Virginia to keep a seat (the northern end of the current #VA07 is folded into Wexton's #VA10).

And, Rep. Elaine Luria's (D) #VA02 gets redder by losing Norfolk. It moves from Biden +5 to +2.
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps ImageImage
First, the five biggest "losers" in this draft (which will change before 12/27):

#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +10
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +9
#CA40 Roybal-Allard (D) - seat eliminated
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +9
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +1
Next, other "losers" who would be at heightened risk:

#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +5
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +13
#CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to Tied
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +4
#CA49 Levin (D) - Biden +13 to +9
#CA53 Jacobs (D) - Biden +36 to +8
Read 5 tweets
10 Nov
NEW: FL's Senate Rs release four draft congressional maps. Bizarre: these maps shore up #FL27 Rep. Maria Salazar (R), but otherwise are barely gerrymanders. By my count these maps break down 16-12 Trump-Biden, vs. 15-12 today. Is this a head fake?
These maps would put #FL15 Rep. Scott Franklin (R) in the new safe R #FL28, but turn #FL15 into a *Biden* seat in the east Tampa suburbs - effectively creating a new Dem seat. I can't imagine this is going to be the ultimate GOP plan in FL.
What's more, the map keeps #FL07 Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) and #FL13 Rep. Charlie Crist (D) in Biden seats, even though Rs could turn them into double-digit Trump districts. I'd be very surprised if Tallahassee Rs settle for this.
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city.
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (North):

#CA01 LaMalfa (R) - Trump +15 to +6
#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +8
#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +4
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +9
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (South):

#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12
#CA36 Ruiz (D) - Biden +14 to +8
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +8
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +15
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to Trump +1
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +6
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(