Polls are hardly valid measure of behavior. During coup attempt against #gorbachev, there were not even demonstrations in #Ukraine against coup, including in West Ukraine. #Ukrainian Communist turned overnight into supporters of independence after coup defeat.
Almost entire ruling Party of Regions & Communists & #Ukrainian military & security & police forces did not resist with arms after violent overthrow of #Ukraine government by means of Maidan massacre with Maidan leadership & far right involvement. academia.edu/8776021/The_Sn…
Almost all Maidan government supporters & #Ukrainian military & security & police forces in #Crimea also did not resist with arms during #Russian annexation. Most military & security service & police there switched allegiance from #Ukraine to #Russia researchgate.net/publication/27…
Absolute majority of men even in Western #Ukraine evaded military draft during height of civil war in Donbas & #Russian military interventions in #Donbas in August 2014 & January-February 2015. #Zelensky himself evaded military draft then. researchgate.net/publication/29…
Most of #Ukrainian ruling elite are political opportunists. They often change allegiance based on self-interest. Poroshenko, #Zelensky & Razumkov were Yanukovych supporters. Turchynov was Young Communist leader. Akhmetov backed all presidents of #Ukraine. researchgate.net/publication/28…
My research suggests that significant insurgency in case of #Russia - #Ukraine war is likely in Western Ukraine, especially if it would be backed by the US, like in case of UPA insurgency after World War II. researchgate.net/publication/28…
My research also suggests that insurgency in case of #Russia - #Ukraine war is likely to involve far right & their paramilitary branches. Radical nationalist & neo-Nazi organizations & activists were involved in Maidan massacre of police & protesters.
researchgate.net/publication/33…
Far right organizations & their paramilitary units were also involved in Odesa massacre & start of civil war in #Donbass. They would be likely involved in insurgency in case of #Russia - #Ukraine war. But their numbers & public support are not very large. researchgate.net/publication/30…
The same concerns posts by the absolute majority of social media warriors in #Ukraine. Such posts also hardly represent a valid measure of actual behavior in case of #Russia and #Ukraine war. #UkrainiansWillResist

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More from @I_Katchanovski

28 Dec
#Zelensky imposes sanctions & bans opposition TV news channels. They were created instead of 3 TV channels that he banned by imposing sanctions. It is Orwellian that Western politicians & intellectuals call #Ukraine democracy despite such authoritarianism strana.news/news/369263-ze…
UkrLive TV is now blocked in #Ukraine after #Zelensky imposed illegal sanctions on this opposition TV news channel today. He exceeded Poroshenko in his assault on #media freedom and his undemocratic actions. strana.news/news/369277-ve…
UkrLive TV still broadcasts on YouTube. But it would be likely blocked by @YouTube in Ukraine as YouTube blocked earlier this year 3 other opposition TV news channels in #Ukraine on Zelensky's illegal demand.
Read 5 tweets
25 Dec
I wrote in June 1990 in my final undergraduate thesis in Kyiv university that #SovietUnion system would collapse. My department head told me that they would expel me when I submitted my thesis proposal because it stated that it would use theories of Max Weber & Western economists
My thesis argued that #SovietUnion economic system was inefficient compared to free market economy & was bound to collapse. Because #Gorbachev glasnost was making certain headways in #Ukraine, I was not expelled but given ”C” for my final thesis in spite of all excellent grades.
Because I wrote in my thesis in 1990 that Soviet system was bound to collapse & based it on theories of Weber & Western economists, I couldn't pursue graduate education until #SovietUnion collapsed. University in Soviet #Ukraine had no problem that I wrote my thesis in #Ukrainian
Read 4 tweets
21 Dec
#Maidan massacre trial in #Ukraine showed video of witness testimony of one of several Georgians, who confessed of being in groups of Maidan snipers & receiving orders from Maidan & ex-Georgian leaders in #Ukraine to massacre police & protesters in 2014.
Georgian sniper stated in witness video testimony, which was shown at #Maidan massacre trial, that he & other Georgians were brought by Saakashvili's aide to #Ukraine to identify sniper positions on Maidan months before start of Euromaidan. Zero media reports about his testimony.
Only today some Ukrainian media reported Facebook post by defense lawyer that witness video testimony of one of self-admitted Georgian snipers was shown at Maidan massacre trial. +7 gordonua.com/news/maidan/ad…
Read 19 tweets
17 Dec
I said in my live interview today to @globalnews Radio in Canada that current US - #Russia conflict is most serious since violent overthrow of #Ukrainian government in 2014, subsequent #Russian annexation of Crimea in response to it & start of the war in #Donbas
@globalnews #Russia regards promised #NATO membership of #Ukraine & Western weapons deployment there as threat similarly to US during Caribbean crisis when Soviet Union deployed missiles with nuclear weapons in #Cuba. Russia also opposes policies of #Ukrainian governments since 2014.
My research suggests that possibility of war between #Russia & #Ukraine increased significantly. However, crisis in unlikely to reach level of #Cuban Missile Crisis. #Biden & other US & NATO officials confirmed that there won’t be direct military involvement of US & NATO.
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec
"Garbage in, garbage out" again dominates narratives by Western politicians, media & self-proclaimed experts on escalating conflicts involving #Ukraine. They omit or misrepresent that #Maidan massacre was perpetrated with involvement of elements of Maidan leadership & far right.
False-flag #Maidan massacre led to overthrow of #Ukrainian government & ultimately to #Russian annexation of Crimea, civil war in #Donbas, Russian military intervention in Donbas & escalating & dangerous conflicts between Ukraine & #Russia & West & Russia.
Without understanding #Maidan massacre & who was involved in this massacre it's impossible to understand & resolve peacefully internal & international conflicts involving #Ukraine. It's no accident that scholars who researched them continue to be deliberately ignored or censored.
Read 6 tweets
26 Nov
Classic cases of “they first came for” & witch-hunters becoming witch hunted: #Zelensky accuses Akhmetov of involvement in imminent coup plot with #Russia, while Akhmetov’s & Poroshenko’s proxies accuse head of Office of President of #Ukraine & his deputy of being #Russian agents
All of them supported #Zelensky witch hunt against opposition parties’ leaders on trumped-up charges of state treason on behalf of #Russia. Confrontation between Zelensky & oligarchs, who control TV, suggests real possibility that he might be overthrown before end of presidency.
I noted in my TV interview before his confrontation with Akhemtov, whose TV channels now turned against Zelensky: #Zelensky became president of #Ukraine because of support from oligarchs & their TV channels. Lose of such support would lead to further drop of his popularity.
Read 15 tweets

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