1/ Volume analysis on $BTC is often useless and misleading.
Here is why.
- Volume is calculated per paired crypto/currency.
- Volume is calculated at an exchange level.
- More exchanges the less accurate the data. #Bitcoin#CryptoAnalysis
2/ -- HOW ITS CALCULATED --
Volume is calculated at an exchange level, which means that the volume indicator differs from exchange to exchange.
Volume on #Binance may be different to #Gemini or #Kucoin. Gemini's clientele are predominantly Americans, Binance bans Americans.
3/ -- HOW ITS CALCULATED cont --
The difference doesn't stop at nationalities. Each exchange targets different levels of investors and appeals to different types of traders.
It makes sense that BTC volume will differ between exchanges.
4/ -- HOW ITS CALCULATED cont --
The differences go deeper than this. Volume is also calculated at a pairing level. On Binance volume for BTCUSDT, BTCUSD, BTCUSDC and all other pairings will be different.
Volume is not aggregated, which is why it's so different in the imgs above
5/ -- BEST FEED FOR VOLUME --
CMC shows volume per pairing on an exchange. BTCUSDT on Binance represents 6% of all tracked volume, making it the best feed, but it is still only a 6% sample size.
If you use a KuCoin chart for vol, it's only 1.47%. A Bitfinex chart 0.58%
6/ -- FAULTY LOGIC --
If you are basing trading decisions on volume data on a FTX chart, you are only seeing a tiny slither of actual volume, 1.61%.
Does that seem like a sound decision? If you were to aggregate the top 10 volume feeds, it might be completely different.
7/ -- FAULTY LOGIC cont --
Next time somebody tells you volume is dropping, make sure you ask them what data they are using. If they are using a BITPANDA BTCUSD chart that represents 0.01% of all volume, maybe they have no idea what they are doing.
8/ -- THE SOLUTION --
Aggregated volume from the top 20 feeds would show > 20% of BTC volume. While 20% is still a small picture it is 10x-40x greater than the volume fees most traders are looking at.
9/ -- AGGREGATE FEEDS --
Does anybody know any good aggregated volume feeds?
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3/ Huobi prime list has a lot of good launches. I am going to try nab some from there. It is a lottery system though, so allocation is not guaranteed. ☹️
2/ -- LOW RISK (40%) --
This is my HODL portfolio where I hold $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $DOT, $LUNA, $MATIC, $ADA, $LTC and $XRP.
I sold most of my LTC and XRP recently. They are still on the HOD list, but I don't hold much.
I try to keep a 40% of this portfolio in stable at all times
3/ -- LOW RISK cont --
I don't touch this portfolio much. I will sell from time to time based on my management strategy. I sold LTC and XRP near the tops, but I also dumped a large portion of LUNA early 🤷♀️
3/ -- NO BIG HOLDERS --
When you look at holders for many projects, you'll see whales holding 10% of the supply. When that whale decides to dump, they can cause a cascade of dumps.
The biggest holder of SPIN has only 1.85% of the supply, and that is probably a team wallet.
2/ -- PRESALE TOKENS SOLD --
The fewer tokens sold presale, the better. I prefer to see 20% or under, but I am willing to accept up to 30% if vesting is good.
If a project has less than 10% sold presale it's usually a very good sign.
3/ -- LONG VESTING --
Long vesting means that presale tokens get released slowly. I like to see at least 12 months of vesting. I also like to see a cliff of a few months. For a breakdown on vesting and cliffs read my first tokenomics thread.