Hello Thursday!

Is #CPI 7% really ๐Ÿ”๏ธ inflation?

Only if the #FOMC really means action to drain the ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ

And the $USD -0.7% yesterday does not believe it.
That's a problem, folks.

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed mostly โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 28489 -0.95% ๐Ÿชš
$SSEC 3555 -1.15%
$TWII 18436 +0.35% โฌ…๏ธ
$HSI 24439 +0.1%
$KOSPI 2962 -0.35%
$IDX6658 +0.15%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7474 +0.5%

India โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 61161 unch
Europe โ†”๏ธ at the open after $FEZ +1.05%

$DAX 15988 -0.15%
$FTSE 7547 -0.05%
$CAC 7206 -0.45%
$AEX 792 +0.25%
$MIB 27766 +0.2%
$SMI 12623 -0.35%
$MOEX 3805 -0.65% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 18.30 ๐Ÿ”ป
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ futures drifting โ†˜๏ธ after two up days

$ES 4722 -0.1%
$NQ 15889 -0.1%
$RTY 2172 -0.2%

$VIX 18.12
Metals โ†˜๏ธ after a ๐Ÿ’ช day move โ†—๏ธ

$GOLD 1821 -0.35%
$SILVER 23.18 -0.1%
$COPPER 4.538 -0.85%
$PALL 1900 -0.95%
$PLAT 970 -1.1%
$ALI 2941 -1.4%
$ZINC 3588 +1.0% โฌ…๏ธ

$GVZ 15.32
$VXSLV 28.18
Crude โ†—๏ธ and holding onto +4.7% WTD

$WTIC 82.73 +0.1% with $OVX 34.39
$BRENT 84.87 +0.25%
$GASO 2.39 +0.05%
$NATGAS 4.747 -2.25% โฌ…๏ธ
Grains โ†˜๏ธ with $DBA little changed this week

$WHEAT 752 -0.7%
$CORN 597 -0.1%
$SOYB 1391 -0.55%
$SUGAR 18.29 -0.15%

โ˜•๏ธ 242 +0.65% โฌ…๏ธ
The $USD < 95 and under pressure โ†˜๏ธ

$USD 94.77 -0.15%
$EUR 1.147 +0.25%
$GBP 1.374 +0.26%
$AUD .731 +0.35%
$USDJPY 114.54 -0.08%
$USDCHF .913 -0.14%
$USDCAD 1.248 -0.2%
$USDRUB 74.61 -0.14% ๐Ÿช†
Crypto โ†—๏ธ

$BTC 43917 +2.6%
$ETH 3363 +3.1%
UST yields โ†—๏ธ across the curve
10/2s 83.5 BPS --- MOVE 74.55 ๐Ÿ”ป

2Y .919 < cycle high
5Y 1.522
10Y 1.754
30Y 2.096

Global 10Ys mostly โ†—๏ธ
AUS 1.848 ๐Ÿ”ป
Make sense of this for me ๐Ÿค”

Fed says its raising rates --> $USD โ†˜๏ธ
ECB says no rate increase --> $EUR โ†—๏ธ

Credibility problem here?

Meanwhile $EEM โฌ†๏ธโฌ†๏ธ has caught my ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ

Have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ day!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

12 Jan
Hello ๐Ÿซ day!

This week's catalyst?
#CPI

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia jumped on the โ™‰๏ธ๐Ÿš„โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 28766 +1.9%
$SSEC 3597 +0.85%
$TWII 18375 +0.5%
$HSI 244402 +2.8% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2972 +1.55%
$IDX 6647 unch

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7439 +0.65%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 61132 +0.85%
Europe building on gains โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 16017 +0.45%
$FTSE 7550 +0.8%
$CAC 7220 +0.5%
$AEX 788 +0.65%
$IBEX 8789 +0.4%
$MIB 27646 +0.4%
$SMI 12692 -0.15%
$MOEX 3803 +0.45% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 19.79 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets
11 Jan
Hello Tuesday!

#Inflation - induced by ๐Ÿš๐Ÿ’ฐdirect from Uncle Sam to businesses (PPP) and individuals (UBI) and monetized by the Fed - dominates the market zeitgeist right now.

Causing dislocations and volatility, fear of #QT is creating opportunities

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia markets closed โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 28222 -0.9%
$SSEC 3567 -0.75%
$TWII 18288 +0.3% โช
$HSI 23739 -0.05%
$KOPSI 2927 unch
$IDX 6648 -0.65%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7390 -0.75%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 60544 +0.25%
European bourses open โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 15969 +1.3%
$FTSE 7490 +0.6%
$CAC 7215 +1.4% โช
$AEX 782 +1.15%
$IBEX 8781 +0.85%
$MIB 27618 +0.95%
$SMI 12751 +1.2% โช
$MOEX 5789 +1.35% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 22.54 ๐Ÿ”บ
Read 11 tweets
10 Jan
Hello Monday!

#Inflation remains front and center as we begin the week with #CPI, Powell Testimony, and 10-year note auction all on tap for Wednesday.

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed mostly โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK holiday
$SSEC 3594 +0.4%
$TWII 18239 +0.4%
$HSI 23747 +1.1%
$KOSPI 2927 -0.95% โช
$IDX 6991 -0.15%

Australia โ†”๏ธ
$ASX 7447 -0.1%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 60290 +0.9%
Europe opens mostly โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15917 -0.2%
$FTSE 7448 -0.1%
$CAC 7211 -0.1%
$AEX 786 -0.35%
$IBEX 8738 -0.15%
$MIB 27670 +0.2%
$SMI 12757 -0.3% โช
$MOEX 3801 +0.75% ๐Ÿช†
Read 11 tweets
9 Jan
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review - 01/09/2022

1/14

Market players returned from ๐Ÿ•Ž๐ŸŽ„๐ŸŽ‰ buying value and oil โ†—๏ธ and selling growth and duration โ†˜๏ธ

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/14

Roiled by #FOMC minutes (nothing new) mid-week, players bid up $VXN and sold $COMPQ.

$VXN 65 +21% - $COMPQ -4.53%
$RVX +13.31% - $IWM -2.87%
$VIX 18.76 +8.94% - $SPX -1.87%

Chart: $COMPQ -4.44% (t) +2.44% (T)
2a/14

Chart: $VXN accelerates to the ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿชฃ
Read 20 tweets
7 Jan
Hello Friday

Week to date

$BTC -10.12%
$GOLD -2.15%
$EUR -0.69%
$USD +0.77%

$CAC +1.35%
$SPX -1.47%
$KOSPI -1.92%
$COMPQ -3.61%

$WHEAT -3.21%
$COPPER -2.44%
$NATGAS +2.2%
$SOYB +3.58%
$GASO +3.58%
$WTIC +5.65%
$LUMBER +6.66%
$CRB +1.88%

$TNX +14.62%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ for the week

$NIKK 28479 -0.05%
$SSEC 3580 -0.2%
$TWII 18170 -1.1%

$HSI 23493 +1.8%
$KOSPI 2955 +1.2%
$IDX 59578 +0.7%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7453 +1.3%

India โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 50577 -0.05%
Europe opens โ†”๏ธ

$IBEX 8741 -0.55%
$DAX 16000 -0.3%
$CAC 7241 -0.1%
$SMI 12787 -0.05%

$FTSE 7458 +0.1%
$AEX 788 +0.25%
$MOEX 3277 +0.5% ๐Ÿช†
$MIB 27832 +0.66%

$VSTOXX 20.10 ๐Ÿ”บ
Read 12 tweets
7 Nov 21
Weekly Global Macro Review 10/07/21

1/15

@hedgeye calls it #Quad2 reflation, but I rather prefer @jam_croissantโ€™s colorful description of โ€œendless gamma squeezesโ€ oh so reminiscent of ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿพ๐Ÿฅณ like itโ€™s 1999!

Letโ€™s dig into the macro ๐Ÿงฎ for the week
2/15

A ๐Ÿ•Š #FOMC on Wednesday and a ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿผ #NFP report on Friday with underlying wage #inflation of 4.9% y/y was enough to ignite a rally in the $UST market โ†—๏ธ

WTF, you say?
3/15

Indeed, the MOVE 66.30 โ†˜๏ธ from 78.34 on Tuesday as the 10/2s curve remained ๐Ÿฅž at 105

2Y .405 -9.6 bps
5Y 1.056 -12.9 bps
10Y 1.455 -10.6 bps
30Y 1.888 -5.1 bps

Chart: Despite a strong #NFP, the $TNX โ†˜๏ธ -10.6 BPS to 1.455 and at critical support
Read 19 tweets

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