Thread by @BambroughKevin

I’ve been warning people about the cross over investments that tech and crypto investors have in the #uranium market.

My researching crypto and warning of its collapse and the tech bull market ending is due to my concerns of a liquidity down draft spill over effect in uranium

I expect that this will be a continued theme with commodity markets pulling back at times with the broader market but I expect will continue to show relative strength and rebound to new highs in time.

The same thing happened in 2000-2002 as the nasdaq fell apart and the bull market in commodities running from 2000-2010 (depending on the commodity)

Capital will keep leaving the over valued tech and crypto sectors but it will continue to flow to and grow in commodity markets

Commodity markets a ridiculously cheap. It’s been ignored and underinvested in for a decade. Commodity prices will continue to rise and inflationary pressures will continue to build until a major investment is made in new mines to help solve the supply shortages

Despite the rise in some commodity stocks since 2020 lows, it remains under invested in. Energy and metals has a great future. Stay the course and ignore the short term fluctuations. Invest in dips and profit take on runs.

Buying quality companies or etfs when they near their major moving averages will prove to be a winning formula for investors as this giant capital shift takes place.

Seemly few #uranium investors want to hear the short term bear case for some of the uranium equities. Example: CRDN (Sask First Nation Band) putting a cloud over permitting in its territory. Or Kazakhstan taking taxation and liquidation.

Fact is $u.un is a solid investment and an excellent way to play the long term #uranium bull. Nyse listing will come in time. URA will rebalance and add it to its holdings at month end. This will be at the detriment of other uranium equities it holds.

Inflationary pressures will continue, capex or opex cost rises, labour, strikes, permitting issues, or even expropriation. All input costs will rise and already few can produce economically at todays sub $55 price. Many will need $65-75 to produce at a profit

Likely $75-85 will be need to see funds flow to actually fund major new mines. The nuclear facility builds, life extensions and restarts keep coming. Supply will in fact struggle in time to keep up with demand

There is way to much focus on the short term spot market and carry trading. People comment on the lack of spot movement with SPUT purchases but miss the fact that front running is constantly occurring. Traders are buying up lbs when sput trades at a discount and are flipping lbs

Selling to sput in anticipation of it rising and returning to premium. There is no doubt that utilities are not replenishing inventories and are stubbornly running them down and seeking long term contracts with price sharing discounts

Kazakh news will effect perceptions and make some seek diversification of supply. The nuclear market moves at a snail pace until such a time as it’s clear to the market that they can no longer get long term sweetheart supply agreements (10 year deals with spot discounts)

EU taxonomy will most definitely have to include Nuclear power. Was listening to Finnish leaders explain their perspective on Bloomberg radio recently. Little wind and 5 hours of weak sunlight a day in the winter. They must have nuclear to achieve carbon goals / power needs

They’ve built long term safe waste storage. Plus few talk about fuel rod recycling / refurbishment that is coming available.

Nuclear is the solution. But by bit more and more of the world is recognizing this. And while we wait more EV’a (electric vehicles) are built each day

Power crisis is growing and greens need to wake up to reality. Choice is clear. Nuclear or coal? Then nuclear or Natural gas. It’s time to smarten up and pick the right battles. Coal fired power is growing and is at a record as is natural gas. The latter will not be a transition

It’s complete bullshit that we will be able to get of natural gas anytime in the forceable future. It’s not just electricity but home heating. The amount of energy we get from fossil fuels will not be displaced in any reasonable time frame with solar and wind.

Despite the huge growth in the sector carbon emissions continue to rise. It’s a daunting reality that must be recognized and tackled with real world solutions. Few are doing the math and special interest groups are controlling the narrative

The nuclear sector is tiny in market cap and doesn’t have the lobbing power to compete with the alternative energy space or the fossil fuel advocates. The market cap of all involved represents just a small fraction of the competing energy producers. We need better journalism!

The ungodly crypto space complete dwarfs it. Probably 50x the market cap and all it does is wast energy. But it gets so much journalist attention and has huge dollars to spend on advertising. It’s an uphill battle but I’m confident the world will come to its senses soon

We are on the cusp of a huge nuclear investment cycle and will greatly benefit from the extremely low carbon energy output the sector will provide. Along with the it’s stability and cost certainty. Stay the course! $u.un as a core holding.

Those being, what was likely to happen when the tech bubble burst (the study of money flows and the history of central banking) and what was likely to be next (commodity market investment cycles)

At the time I was investing in and working in the tech industry. I was worried about it’s future and anticipated the end to an easy money era coming. I spent countless hours considering how much money was likely to evaporate and the consequences it would have on the economy

In researching central banking and this history of the Fed you can help but come to the conclusion that when ever there is a sharp negative wealth effect they will cut rates and print money. Why? Cause that’s exactly what they do every single time with out fail

Why do they do it? Well you have to understand that the people that are positioned in the high levels of financial oversight in government and central banking, the treasury etc all have been educated and by the ‘system’ their schooling and work experience all highly specialized

They are in fact finance nerds. They’ve lived and breathed finance and banking their entire lives. They surround themselves with like minded people and they believe that the ‘system works’. It has for them for sure as they’ve been well paid and rose up in its ranks

And that rise is in fact 100% because they support ‘the system’ and so ‘the system’ supports them. This is a very key point. The ‘financial system’ (the system) is extremely powerful. It’s the most powerful system/sector in the world. The elite that run it like it that way too

So via lobbying and election funding the players collectively make sure that those that come to power at the top and provide oversight also are there to protect the status quo and make sure that those working in ‘the system’ stay on top and in control

So if the financial system starts to break down and banks are put at risk of failure do to their loans going bad the central bankers are all ways there to save them and keep them on top. The main tools they use to bail out the bankers are lowering interest rates and debt buying

Monetizations or quantitative easing as they call it is really just the creating of new money by the central bank and using it to buy bonds or corporate paper (loans) off banks and financial institutions at prices the market won’t pay.

The average person doesn’t understand how unfair this is. Lenders have been supported and are basically given free money and huge sums of it over and over again for the last 100+ years. Since the Fed was created in 1913

Imagine how nice it would be if any any given time in history when the housing market collapsed, you or your parents or grandparents could get the government to over pay for their mortgage and cash you out of your house above market rates.

And also provide your ancestors with huge sums of cash to buy up houses cheap and profit when the market inevitably improves. There is no surer way to profit over time then buying up real assets in bear markets and waiting for inflation to return

It’s especially certain when your in cahoots with the government money creators and know that ‘the liquidity’ money printing is coming and will continue until there is enough inflation to make all your real asset investments extremely profitable

In my mind these over educated financial sector experts aren’t super smart and deserving of the ridiculous wealth they get. The industry is just populated by people smart enough to understand at early age that it’s the best place to be to make money for themselves

The arrogance of its participants is it bugs me most. They think of themselves as so deserving of their wealth and power when really they it’s a group super greedy people taking advantage of the masses with their collective support of a system basically fucks the little guy

The system determines who gets funded to run for office and ensures the very best ego driven ass kissers get nominated and positioned in key roles at the Federal reserve and then treasury dept. Always and forever. So enough on that. Just know when ever shit hits the fan..

The boot licking snobs at the fed and other central banks will bail out their banker buddies and then celebrate at Christmas parties and enjoy cocktails and fancy snacks together while discussing boring shit and perhaps discuss what it a pity it is that so many suffer ‘out there’

So this long ass thread turns back to the what’s next. Tech over valued. Crypto a useless con job on the intellectually weak.. as these to sectors now have peaked and roll over and begin to see valuation contraction (just like tech post y2k) what happens.

Well despite the take of rate hikes and liquidity adjustments just know central bankers will be rushing to the rescue before you know it. This economy is so dependent on a positive wealth effect from the stock market. The stock market is the economy!

At the peak crypto had 3 trillion. Tech stocks and other high flyers account for trillions upon trillions more. The negative wealth effect of those two sectors falling will grind the economy to a halt if allowed to continue. So, in comes more monetizing and the latest…

Massive deficit spending on ‘infrastructure’. In my opinion this will continue to be the big ‘go to’ solution of global governments. They will pass massive spending bills to ‘build back better’ or ‘fix the old shit’ / ‘invest in the future’. Trillion dollar spending packages

The Central bankers will be there to support the treasury issuance and new money will always be created to see that the government has ample funds to pay for what ever it wants to build. This new money flow will be in the trillions and increase ‘as needed’

The new money will have the effect of offsetting the negative wealth effect that our favourite tech nerds will be experiencing along with the crying and very broke crypto cult. So imagine now that money isn’t just flowing out of these sectors but it’s evaporating as they decline.

When a stock like $tsla get cut in half (and it will be more than half) huge disappearance of wealth. But all those trillions of new money will be flowing into the economy to replace it. But it won’t be driving up the price of $tsla. Or other ridiculously over valued stocks

It will prevent many bankruptcies and put a floor on many sectors but the biggest impact it’s gonna have is on commodities. Metals, energy and agriculture prices. The financial nerds in government and banking generally speaking are fucking clueless when it comes to commodities

To them commodity inflation is always transitory. High prices fix high prices. They all studied in school and they seen it play out over their careers in finance. Price of a commodity goes up. It’s producers are therefore encouraged to produce more, supply will follow

And prices will inevitably fall due to over supply that always results. Just keep saying transitory and talking about how prices will ‘abate’ and in a few quarters or maybe a year or so the market will do it’s job and then problem solved

Easy peazy problem solved the system is works. ‘We are geniuses’ let’s have cocktails and caviar.

Only this ain’t what’s gonna happen now cause we are coming out of a prolonged bear market in commodities

It’s been a starved sector for over a decade. ‘Supply chain effects have never been worse. Labour shortages. Equipment shortages. Parts shortages. Commodity shortages. The entire food chain is screwed from lack of investment. It take commodities to make commodities.

The only way out of this situation is to see sky high commodity prices and big money flow into the sector to expand production.

All this talk of transitory inflation and also pulling the punch bowl is only gonna make it worse and much worse

The morons in government and at the central banks should be talking about the fact that the commodity prices are too low and that the various commodity sectors need more investment. Instead they discourage it due to incompetence and naïveté

When the prices of various commodities take off the main stream narrative is always ‘no one could have predicted this’ etc. But many do and have. It’s just that for many talking about $80-100 oil prices when it was smashed to zero a couple years ago seemed outlandish

Guys like @METhompson72 completely get this cycle and it’s why he’s got involved in it’s #copper #tin #tungten #gold I’ve got to know him and invested in $mno.v and $tun.l

I’m a lover of #silver #molybdenum and my favourite #uranium

Of all the commodities #uranium is the most important and cheapest. It’s tiny market worth next to nothing in market sap but crazy valuable in the energy it produces. Much of the infrastructure money will be going to expanding and securing the power grid. (Low carbon)

The power demands of our certain electric vehicle future can and will not be met with out a massive investment in nuclear power and it’s has clearly started. But there will be trillions invested in it over the next decade or two. The #uranium sector is we left for dead.

The #uranium sector will rise to become one of the greatest or perhaps even the #1 sourced energy fuel globally. This future was predicted in the 1960’s and 70’s and oil and gas majors all entered the space.

The sure way to play this sector will be to invest in both uranium equity etfs like $urnm but also physical uranium $u.un $sruuf

Many near term catalysts coming to this sector as it’s poised to run hard. Hope you enjoyed my nocturnal mega thread. Regards…