Thread by @gbponz

Just for the foreign crowd, NO lay person in Italy knows that #Germany actually HAS a president of the republic, let alone who the person is. Yet the election for the Italian one makes "Cat on a hot tin roof" an image associated with Xanax. (/)

That's because contrary to other countries, in Italy the President wields enormous power and he's not afraid to use it. We have a decent track record of things which are intuitively against our Constitution that are not only signed into law, but are then defended by pundits.(/)

The trouble is that this is a "Negative" power, i.e. it's the power to control the Executive AND the Judiciary at the same time, without having a stated power to actually propose any initiative or law.... yet. And this is one of the two weaknesses of the #Draghi candidacy.(/)

First one, as I said, as president he would have (optically) to sign into law or not whatever the then current premier and his/her council decree (Italy rarely passes any law by parliamentary discussion). As such he may say yes/no, not shape..(/)

Because, if he DOES shape and the council of ministers and premier are *cough* "influenced" by the occupant, we have an institutional short circuit. President indicates will, Premier issues decree, President signs decree, and it's immediately in force. (/)

So, in a "Be careful what you wish" moment, sending Draghi to that post either withdraws any input he might have on governing.... or it doesn't, which would open an even bigger can of worms. Hence my insistence on the lack of suitable candidates for the post he'd LEAVE. (/)

It also explains why most of the rest of the field bunches up against #Berlusconi. The reasons they say are a distant second to the fact that it helps mask that they have no clue about who could fill that role without ensuring a government crisis possibly leading to elections.(/)

Also, given that the Center right coalition has the most electors (about 460 out of 1009) and that the #Meloni and #Salvini have no alternative name handy, Berlusconi has an incentive to keep his "optionality" open as long as possible, which means giving no indications.(/)

In the first three votes (one per day), the number to reach is 2/3rds, but from the fourth...simple majority of the electors, 505 votes. Now, what happens if Berlusconi says that in the case of his election he expects Draghi to continue his mandate, BEFORE even saying if he runs?

in that case, all others would face some unpalatable alternatives: they cannot gang up on someone who is "not running". They would have to produce a candidate. The one they "have", Draghi, is not a sure thing unless the Center Right agrees to vote in favor.(/)

#Meloni for one won't be drawn in a bind where #FdI pronounces in favor and as the ONLY opposition party determines the victory of the person they oppose. And many (Most of the #M5S plus others) know they wouldn't survive a snap election. (/)

Many have served too little for public pension and are not presentable for the usual sinecures, Board memberships et al. Moreover the next parliament would lose a third of the seats. HOWEVER, if the government lasts until the next political polls, they would accrue a pension.(/)

From that there is the nice touch of party heads saying that they would keep their electors from casting a ballot: they are afraid survival instinct would prevail upon party orders.
(/)

Will Berlusconi go for it? will he retire his candidacy before the vote? will the others produce, in 72 hours, a name either for the Presidency who's not Draghi and/or a name for a premier in case Draghi goes? And:
Suppose Draghi runs AND LOSES. Will he stay on? (/)

It's riveting for me especially since this moment was cast in stone since Draghi assumed his present post almost an year ago... and they are trying to find a solution in HOURS. If you needed proof of Italy's amateur approach at governing, here you go. @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman

@pietercleppe @ardigiorgio @petunianelsole @DonChisciotte_P

UPDATE: Apparently Berlusconi has announced that he is not in the runnings. repubblica.it/politica/2022/…
So of my three "likelies", Berlusconi, #Mattarella and Draghi, only the one who wants the post and no one wants there is actively in the running now, Draghi.