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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Jan 28

NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.

At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).

There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).

In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.

Read 4 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Jan 6

Thread: yes, the new House map is on track to be slightly more *equitable* (less pro-GOP) than the current one. But keep in mind, it's also on track to feature:

- Even fewer competitive seats
- Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state

@mcpli

I think @mcpli's broader point is fair, but the way I'd frame it is that vastly different standards are being applied to non-white communities in TX vs. IL, AL vs. VA, etc. depending on partisan motive, absent a clearer set of VRA rules from SCOTUS/Congress.

If federal courts unpacked #VA03 to create an additional Black opportunity district in 2016, a consistent interpretation of the VRA would also demand that #AL07, #LA02 and likely #SC06 be unpacked to create second Black majority seats too.

We'll see what courts say this time.

Read 7 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Jan 5

@CookPolitical

NEW @CookPolitical: Republicans are still clear favorites in 2022, but there are poised to be perhaps 3-8 *more* Biden-won seats after redistricting than there are now - creating a House map less biased towards the GOP than the past decade's. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

@CookPolitical

So far, district lines are complete (or awaiting sign-off) in 293 districts, more than two thirds of the House. There are 15 seats that have shifted from GOP-leaning to Dem-leaning @CookPolitical PVIs, and just 9 that have moved the other way.

This is a positive long-term trade for Dems. However, because Dems *already hold* 11/15 newly Dem-leaning seats, that means only four are pickup opportunities. By contrast, Rs only hold 1/9 newly GOP-leaning seats, giving them twice as many newly ripe targets in 2022.

Read 5 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Dec 29, 2021

@Nate_Cohn

Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.

As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).

@CookPolitical

New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.

Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.

By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!

However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).

Read 7 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Dec 22, 2021

BREAKING: here’s the new NJ congressional map that throws #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) under the bus and shores up Reps. Andy Kim (D) #NJ03, Josh Gottheimer (D) #NJ05 and Millie Sherrill (D) #NJ11 for a likely 9D-3R split.

*Mikie, not Millie (damn autocorrect)

Meaningful partisan shifts in this new map:

#NJ03 Kim (D) - Trump +0.2 to Biden +14
#NJ05 Gottheimer (D) - Biden +5 to Biden +12
#NJ07 Malinowski (D) - Biden +10 to Biden +4
#NJ11 Sherrill (D) - Biden +7 to Biden +17

Read 4 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Dec 20, 2021

NEW: California's near-final draft map looks terrific for Dems. All 42 Dem incumbents (except retiring Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D), whose Long Beach seat is folded in w/ LA Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)'s), get strong seats.

Meanwhile, *five* of 11 GOP seats get more vulnerable.

Biggest winners on this draft map:

#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +18
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to +11
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +2
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 (unchanged)
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to +12

Biggest losers on this draft map:

#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +2
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +13
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12
#CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to +1
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +6

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