NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.
At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).
There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).
In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.
Keep in mind, Tonko, Morelle and Higgins all served in the NY Assembly and have deep Albany ties (Elias and Maloney didn't).
Gov. Hochul (D) has said she's willing to play hardball. But Dems need a 2/3 vote and have little margin for error (esp. w/ new DSA members). We'll see.
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BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen…
Highlights of the 23D-3R plan recommended by commenter "Sean Patrick:"
- Staten Island #NY11 drawn in w/ Lower Manhattan
- New maj-min #NY02 on Long Island
- #NY27 Jacobs (R) merged w/ #NY23 Reed (R)
- #NY22 Tenney (R) put in a D-leaning seat
- #NY03 crosses Long Island Sound
More highlights of the Maloney plan submitted via public comment to NY's redistricting site:
- #NY16 Bowman (D) goes from Bronx to rural Dutchess
- #NY17 Jones (D) goes to the Catskills
- #NY19 Delgado (D) goes to Ithaca/Binghamton
- #NY25 Morelle (D) picks up Buffalo suburbs
Thread: yes, the new House map is on track to be slightly more *equitable* (less pro-GOP) than the current one. But keep in mind, it's also on track to feature:
- Even fewer competitive seats
- Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state
I think @mcpli's broader point is fair, but the way I'd frame it is that vastly different standards are being applied to non-white communities in TX vs. IL, AL vs. VA, etc. depending on partisan motive, absent a clearer set of VRA rules from SCOTUS/Congress.
If federal courts unpacked #VA03 to create an additional Black opportunity district in 2016, a consistent interpretation of the VRA would also demand that #AL07, #LA02 and likely #SC06 be unpacked to create second Black majority seats too.
NEW @CookPolitical: Republicans are still clear favorites in 2022, but there are poised to be perhaps 3-8 *more* Biden-won seats after redistricting than there are now - creating a House map less biased towards the GOP than the past decade's. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
So far, district lines are complete (or awaiting sign-off) in 293 districts, more than two thirds of the House. There are 15 seats that have shifted from GOP-leaning to Dem-leaning @CookPolitical PVIs, and just 9 that have moved the other way.
This is a positive long-term trade for Dems. However, because Dems *already hold* 11/15 newly Dem-leaning seats, that means only four are pickup opportunities. By contrast, Rs only hold 1/9 newly GOP-leaning seats, giving them twice as many newly ripe targets in 2022.
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
BREAKING: here’s the new NJ congressional map that throws #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) under the bus and shores up Reps. Andy Kim (D) #NJ03, Josh Gottheimer (D) #NJ05 and Millie Sherrill (D) #NJ11 for a likely 9D-3R split.
*Mikie, not Millie (damn autocorrect)
Meaningful partisan shifts in this new map:
#NJ03 Kim (D) - Trump +0.2 to Biden +14 #NJ05 Gottheimer (D) - Biden +5 to Biden +12 #NJ07 Malinowski (D) - Biden +10 to Biden +4 #NJ11 Sherrill (D) - Biden +7 to Biden +17
NEW: California's near-final draft map looks terrific for Dems. All 42 Dem incumbents (except retiring Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D), whose Long Beach seat is folded in w/ LA Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)'s), get strong seats.
Meanwhile, *five* of 11 GOP seats get more vulnerable.
Biggest winners on this draft map:
#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +18 #CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to +11 #CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +2 #CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 (unchanged) #CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to +12
Biggest losers on this draft map:
#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +2 #CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +13 #CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12 #CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to +1 #CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +6