Thread by @Redistrict

Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.

As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).

New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.

Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.

By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!

However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).

Virginia's new map is another good example. One R-leaning seat moves to D-leaning: #VA07, which helps Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D). But one R-leaning seat gets redder: #VA02, held by Rep. Elaine Luria (D).

Likeliest outcome: 6D-5R, a net Dem loss vs. current 7D-4R split.

Nationally, across the 28 states w/ complete (or near-complete) maps, 15 seats have moved from R-leaning to D-leaning, by @CookPolitical PVI.

But Dems already hold 11 of these 15 seats, meaning only four are pickup opportunities (#CA45, #IL13, #MI03, #NM02).

Meanwhile, nine seats have moved the other way, from D-leaning to R-leaning. That's fewer than 15! But 8/9 are also currently held by Dems: #AZ06, #GA06, #MI08, #MI10, #NJ07, #NC02, #NC07, #OH09.

That means Rs have twice as many pickup chances in "partisan makeover" seats.

Bottom line: we're on track for more Biden-won seats (and more D-leaning seats, by @CookPolitical PVI) after redistricting than before. That's great news for Dems long-term.

But the practical outcome of new maps is still likely to be a small GOP gain vs. *current* seat control.