Thread by @kwasylewsky

The fact that #NATO (yet again) concentrates on #Russia's aggressive international stance may be beneficial for #Turkey. It diverts allies attention from the question of the Alliance's internal cohesion - which has been problematic for Turkey - and in the event of war may again

allow Turkey to capitalise on its 'strategic location', thus strengthening its position in #NATO.

Yet, at the same time it is very problematic for Turkey for two main reasons 👇

1. It runs counter to the basic assumption that has been underpinning Turkish foreign policy after

the end of the Cold War. Namely, as Turgut Özal would put it, that Turkey could play all its cards at the same time to improve its international position and increase its power.

2. It is also a huge risk to a result of the abovementioned assumption - Turkey's

balancing act with Russia. Turkish decision makers are well aware of this and this is why they do their best to square the circle between a strong support for #Ukraine and their willingness not to antagonise Russia.

I think it would be beneficial for Turkey's allies to

understand the extent of change in Turkish DM thinking that is needed to make Turkey even more supportive of the Alliance policy towards Russia in the event of war. Again, this would require the reevaluation of the assumption that has been made by every Turkish DM after '89.

Thus, it would be good if Allies do some thinking on how they could compensate Turkey in the event of Russia's retaliation for Turkey's stronger support for Ukraine in the event of war. I would suggest looking at least at the two issues that will surely be of Turkey's concern 👇

situation in the Idlib province and economy.

Finding a creative solution may allow the Allies to even increase Turkey's - already strong - support for Ukraine and possibly any NATO initiative in the Black Sea.

At the same time, I am pretty sure that the window of

opportunity is pretty short. With all the challenges that the authoritarian powers pose for Western democracy and their many instruments to undermine this very essence of Western community, soon we will be again discussing the Alliance's internal cohesion, even if this time

more broadly, as the discussion will encompas both Germany's stance towards authoritarian powers and France's ambitions. Hence, I hope the Allies would use this window of opportunity wisely, simply because we are #StrongerTogether.