[thread]
The possibility of a #parallel govt — capable of rallying several presidential candidates & other anti-Dabaiba forces — has been pre-announced by #Aqila for months.
Such an entity may indeed emerge now.
Beyond symbolism & posturing, will it affect the current reality?
The possibility of a #parallel govt — capable of rallying several presidential candidates & other anti-Dabaiba forces — has been pre-announced by #Aqila for months.
Such an entity may indeed emerge now.
Beyond symbolism & posturing, will it affect the current reality?
Militarily, bcos Dabaiba has secured the mobilization of Mahjub, Halbus, & al-Jahawi, Bashagha won’t be in a position to contribute much in Misrata, Tajura, or Tripoli itself.
For the #parallel govt to create pain for Dabaiba, it’ll have to consider being in cahoots w/ the #SSA.
For the #parallel govt to create pain for Dabaiba, it’ll have to consider being in cahoots w/ the #SSA.
In the eventuality above, a new #parallel govt may pull off truly bothersome disruptions in the greater #Tripoli area, but Dabaiba will not be removed from power by force in the foreseeable future.
No can do.
The Turkish-backed setup now protecting the PM is just too formidable
No can do.
The Turkish-backed setup now protecting the PM is just too formidable
But one question worth asking is:
To which extent would a new #parallel govt be an actual govt, w/ actual ministries & all.
In other words, how will such entity #fund the creation of new offices & form new kernels of power & effectual decision-making that don’t already exist?
To which extent would a new #parallel govt be an actual govt, w/ actual ministries & all.
In other words, how will such entity #fund the creation of new offices & form new kernels of power & effectual decision-making that don’t already exist?
The 2 staunchest foreign backers of #Aqila’s — #Egypt & #Russia — are notoriously stingy. Neither is in the business of giving even a penny to anybody.
One possibly however (as I wrote a year ago) is: Moscow could resume injecting Goznak-printed dinars…
warontherocks.com/2021/01/the-pe…
One possibly however (as I wrote a year ago) is: Moscow could resume injecting Goznak-printed dinars…
warontherocks.com/2021/01/the-pe…
Even assuming the above, a new #parallel govt instigated by Aqila, Haftar, Bashagha & al. will have a hard time exerting an actual effect on #Libya’s existing system of power.
e.g., It won’t be easy for the new ministries to matter in real life as formal, functional bodies.
e.g., It won’t be easy for the new ministries to matter in real life as formal, functional bodies.
The #CBL now has Cyrenaica-focused #commercial banks on a leash.
Kabir is not only closely allied w/ Dabaiba but also, a bitter enmity exists btwn him & Bashagha.
Lastly, the GNU’s never stopped paying most #LNA staffers’ wages. So Haftar stands to lose if he’s too aggressive.
Kabir is not only closely allied w/ Dabaiba but also, a bitter enmity exists btwn him & Bashagha.
Lastly, the GNU’s never stopped paying most #LNA staffers’ wages. So Haftar stands to lose if he’s too aggressive.
Morality:
If Aqila & other anti-Dabaiba forces come together & announce a #parallel govt (a distinct prospect), the new cabinet will be unlikely to remove Dabaiba from power & the UN will stick w/ the GNU
The parallel govt’s sole purpose will consist in being a pain for Dabaiba
If Aqila & other anti-Dabaiba forces come together & announce a #parallel govt (a distinct prospect), the new cabinet will be unlikely to remove Dabaiba from power & the UN will stick w/ the GNU
The parallel govt’s sole purpose will consist in being a pain for Dabaiba
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