Jalel Harchaoui Profile picture
Covers North Africa w/ a focus on #Libya security & political economy. Associate Fellow @RUSI_org.
May 19, 2022 12 tweets 7 min read
Further clashes are bound to unfold soon in #Tripolitania.

Because:

• some #local rivalries have become too tense.

#macro fault lines have shifted too far away from #Libya’s Jun 2020 equilibrium, which so many policymakers & watchers take for granted;

[ see 🧵 thread👇🏻] One must, right off the bat, acknowledge the outsized importance of #Zawiyah actors in today’s NW Libya configuration.

The most zealous pro-Dabaiba fighters on 5/17 in #Tripoli were led by #Bahrun.

& the #Buzeriba forces (who didn’t fight on 5/17) are ferociously anti-Dabaiba.
Apr 17, 2022 13 tweets 7 min read
[ thread 🧵 on the NOC’s LFB account ]

In late May 2019, Belqacem Haftar visited DC in a bid to secure U.S. assistance in setting up a mechanism meant to deposit $$$ proceeds from #oil exports into a special account in lieu of sending them straight to the CBL in Tripoli. The next year, in the summer of 2020, the US & the UN endorsed the idea of preventing oil $$$ proceeds from being funneled directly & systematically to the CBL in Tripoli.

But the rationale now promoted was not the one advocated by Haftar & his associates.
Apr 6, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read
[ thread🧵]

Is a protracted #stalemate burgeoning in Libya?

PM #Bashagha took his oath in Tobruk a month ago—& he still hasn’t swept into office or begun governing.

He himself told the media about the physical act of #entering Tripoli “w/in days”, but that hasn’t happened yet. Bashagha & his ministers entering Tripoli soon is w/in the realm of the possible.

But the thing is, That won’t necessarily be enough to discard Dabaiba.

I.e., entering Tripoli won’t necessarily put an end to the current crisis.

A slew of profound issues are still outstanding.
Mar 8, 2022 13 tweets 8 min read
The war in #Ukraine will bring a sea change in the #Libyan crisis

#JeuneAfrique kindly included a few of my thoughts on why observers really ought to brace for substantial side effects, not just minor ones.

[ thread on the #Russia facet of the #Libya reality c. 2022 ] Since the Feb. 24 launch of the invasion of Ukraine, apart from lots of unfounded speculation, there’s been not a shred of evidence to suggest any number of #Russian fighters have left Libya.

In fact, over the last several months, the number of Russians in #Brak has increased.
Feb 12, 2022 5 tweets 4 min read
As armed groups block the Radisson to stop the HCS from gathering, it’s a good time to wonder about the rationale of Khaled al-#Meshri this year.

W/out even holding a proper HCS vote, #Meshri gave Aqila the HCS’s blessing — ie a consequential endorsement of Bashagha.

[ thread ] This year, #Meshri & Mohammed Sowan have been 100% behind Bashagha.

The latter’s connection to the #Ikhwan, of course, has been long-standing but Feb 2021’s events do help understand the present better.

A year ago—in Geneva—the Bashagha-Saleh ticket was backed by Meshri & Sowan
Feb 1, 2022 8 tweets 5 min read
[thread]

The possibility of a #parallel govt — capable of rallying several presidential candidates & other anti-Dabaiba forces — has been pre-announced by #Aqila for months.

Such an entity may indeed emerge now.

Beyond symbolism & posturing, will it affect the current reality? Militarily, bcos Dabaiba has secured the mobilization of Mahjub, Halbus, & al-Jahawi, Bashagha won’t be in a position to contribute much in Misrata, Tajura, or Tripoli itself.

For the #parallel govt to create pain for Dabaiba, it’ll have to consider being in cahoots w/ the #SSA.
Apr 9, 2020 13 tweets 17 min read
Deciphering the #Serraj vs #Kabir squabble.

1 must go back to May-Oct 2018, when both #UN & #US began exerting a pressure on the #CBL in #Tripoli.

At the time, an #LNA attack on the capital wasn't seen as imminent, nor was a #Hibri-#Kabir reunification considered a hot priority Following #Haftar's Jun '18 #OilCresc blockade, #US (thru the #UN) helped #CBL devise a measure, which was implemented after the Aug-Sep '18 LoC battle in Tripoli.

An LoC #tax now made the de-facto conversion rate 3.9 dinars to 1 $.

$10k packages were introduced for households.
Feb 12, 2020 11 tweets 11 min read
[ Thread: Internationalized #manpower in the war for #Tripoli ] Long before #Ankara began sending #Syrian Turkmen fighters in Dec to help the #GNA, the number of gung-ho fighters willing to go risk their lives on behalf of the #LNA in W #Libya was insufficient.

That is an important reality even if pro-#LNA voices are loathe to acknowledge it