My Authors
Read all threads
Deciphering the #Serraj vs #Kabir squabble.

1 must go back to May-Oct 2018, when both #UN & #US began exerting a pressure on the #CBL in #Tripoli.

At the time, an #LNA attack on the capital wasn't seen as imminent, nor was a #Hibri-#Kabir reunification considered a hot priority
Following #Haftar's Jun '18 #OilCresc blockade, #US (thru the #UN) helped #CBL devise a measure, which was implemented after the Aug-Sep '18 LoC battle in Tripoli.

An LoC #tax now made the de-facto conversion rate 3.9 dinars to 1 $.

$10k packages were introduced for households.
The #US-designed measure—rolled out by #Kabir in Oct ’18—was effectively a devaluation of the dinar w/ the added benefit of attracting banknotes back into the system.

The measure turned out to be a success.

It also reduced the amount of political controversy surrounding #Kabir
Then, in Apr ’19, the #LNA attacked #Tripoli in order to overthrow the #GNA.

#Kabir’s knee-jerk reaction was to close ranks w/ #Serraj & help #GNA survive.

Also, after toying w/ the idea of punishing Cyrenaica-focused commercial banks, #Kabir chose a rather conciliatory stance
The #Kabir play above was possible largely bcos the #NOC did fantastic throughout 2019, & Brent prices were decent.

In the autumn, as part of the so-called 3M philosophy, the #US began exerting pressure for a more #Haftar-friendly #CBL … but w/out necessarily discarding #Kabir.
One must note the #US push above (aka the “UN’s economic track") is distinct from what the #UAE & #France have been clamoring for.

#UAE & #Fr want #Kabir’s head to roll. They want #Haftar to enjoy total control over the #CBL in #Tripoli.

But the #US has been more ambivalent.
After #Turkey announced its new military intervention in #Libya, pro-#Haftar factions—w/ the blessing of the #UAE & #Fr—imposed a universal blockade on all #oil extraction in Jan.

Goal is to strangle the #CBL in Tripoli & supplant it w/ an alternative 100% controlled by the #LNA
As a result of the #oil blockade, it became clear the #US approach was exceedingly slow & ambivalent. But that policy was not abandoned: the #US carries on thinking it can pressure #Kabir into a more #Haftar-friendly posture w/out jettisoning him altogether.

#Serraj knows that.
Seeing $ revenues go to zero (& crude prices collapse as a result of #Covid19), #CBL governor recommends devaluing the dinar further. #Kabir wants the de-facto conversion to rise from 3.9 to 4.4, an inflationary measure.

#Kabir also interrupted salaries, LoCs & the $10k stipend.
In response, an isolated #Serraj chose a stance that’s to be expected from a politician: #Serraj rejects the devaluation recommended by #Kabir. Instead, he says that the full board of the #CBL should meet & take command.

In many ways, #Serraj's play is inspired by the #US angle.
Bottom line: #Serraj’s move is a risky political wager.

Amid this difficult crisis, if #Kabir manages to hold onto his seat, then it’ll mean the #CBL may end up paralyzed, weakened, on the verge of collapse… when #Libyans need it to take technocratic, pragmatic measures asap.
While Kabir wishes to impose austere measures (a devaluation is inevitably inflationary), Serraj wants more profligacy:
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Jalel Harchaoui

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!