[1] Few things to think about on equity diversification from a brilliant academic paper we recently summarised 🗒️
The paper explores whether the liberalisation and integration of financial markets have limited...
[2] ...investors’ opportunities to diversify risk across countries. They have not.
Chart 3 shows the time-series behaviour of average corr. between countries. On avg across the 63 countries, global equity price correlation has not increased significantly over the last 40 years.
[3] Instead, correlation jumps during crises but drops after. Over the last 10 years, global interconnectedness appears to have fallen.
[4] On an industry level, the correlations are even smaller. That is, the equity prices of different industries within the same country are less correlated than the same industries across countries.
[5] Correlations between industries across countries are even lower (so, for example, banks are highly uncorrelated with healthcare in different countries).
[6] The findings imply the best diversification strategy for #equity investors is to choose equities across different countries and different industries. Even more diversification benefit comes from investing in EM countries.
[7] The average EM industry (e.g., tech in India) has a correlation of only 0.16 to the same global industry (e.g., a global tech index) versus 0.34 in developed markets.
1) The Fed, the ECB and BoE are behind the curve. Normally, a tightening cycle would start during rising growth momentum. This time, however, central banks are likely to tighten as fiscal stimulus fades.
2) Markets are currently pricing four Fed hikes this year, but more might be needed to tame inflation as geopolitical risks and energy prices continue to rise.
This means the Fed might have to hike faster, suddenly slamming on the brakes throwing investors in the wind.
Where does #inflation, US Treasuries and markets go from here? John Welch shared his rather unconventional view exclusive to Macro Hive.
Given how important this is, here's a quick summary:
[1] In an era of massive QE, we cannot ignore Milton Friedman’s warning that ‘inflation is always everywhere a monetary phenomenon.’
[2] Chart 2 shows the evolution of two measures of money: 1) the monetary base (MB), comprising the monetary liabilities of the central bank, and 2) M2, which includes currency in circulation, demand deposits, time deposits, money market accounts, and other liquid deposits.
Here's a quick update on our Asia Currencies & Commodities views in partnership with @SGX, so you can keep an update on the markets that matter🐝
[1a] #China: policy easing continues. The PBoC became the first central bank to cut rates in 2022 with a 10bps cut in the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) to 2.85%. This was the first cut since the height of the Covid stress in March 2020. Yet $CNH remains stable.
[1b] We remain neutral on CNH given that the ongoing C/A surplus and equity inflows are offsetting declining yield support.
Awesome new IMF working paper exploring the connection between crypto and equity markets, comparing pre- and post-pandemic period - we just had to write a Hive Deep Dive summary!
Here are some key takeaways 🧵
[1] Starting with simple correlations, the intra-day price #Bitcoin and #Ether, is now about 4-8 times more correlated with the volatility of the main US equity market indices (the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000) versus 2017-19.
[2] Intra-day returns have also become more correlated, particularly $BTC. While the correlation between Tether & equities also strengthened, it turned negative during the pandemic – implying people used it as a risk diversification asset in that period.
(1/13)
Grey Swans are those low-probability, high-impact events that few expect.
Last year, we had picked 10 Grey Swans for 2021. Amazingly, some materialised. Notably, the Democrats won the Senate, and inflation surged.
Here are our 12 for this year 👇
(2/13)
Pundits are Wrong! US Enters a #Recession in 2022
Almost no one is looking for a US recession in 2022. Economists’ consensus assigns only a 15% probability. Clearly, most expect US growth to lose momentum. So why not expect a US recession?
(3/13)
With a Magic Wand: COVID All But Disappears
Virus mutation, natural immunity and vaccines are all reasons why the pandemic could end next year according. #COVID could also just disappear like other viruses have! (Think SARS)