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Feb 3 8 tweets 2 min read
[1] Few things to think about on equity diversification from a brilliant academic paper we recently summarised 🗒️

The paper explores whether the liberalisation and integration of financial markets have limited...
[2] ...investors’ opportunities to diversify risk across countries. They have not.

Chart 3 shows the time-series behaviour of average corr. between countries. On avg across the 63 countries, global equity price correlation has not increased significantly over the last 40 years. Image
[3] Instead, correlation jumps during crises but drops after. Over the last 10 years, global interconnectedness appears to have fallen.
[4] On an industry level, the correlations are even smaller. That is, the equity prices of different industries within the same country are less correlated than the same industries across countries.
[5] Correlations between industries across countries are even lower (so, for example, banks are highly uncorrelated with healthcare in different countries).
[6] The findings imply the best diversification strategy for #equity investors is to choose equities across different countries and different industries. Even more diversification benefit comes from investing in EM countries.
[7] The average EM industry (e.g., tech in India) has a correlation of only 0.16 to the same global industry (e.g., a global tech index) versus 0.34 in developed markets.
For our full summary and a link to the paper, see here: macrohive.com/deep-dives/div…

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More from @Macro_Hive

Feb 7
How should investors position for high inflation and policy normalization?

@macrocredit gave us his thoughts on a recent #MacroHive exclusive.

Here is what we learned 👇🧵
1) The Fed, the ECB and BoE are behind the curve. Normally, a tightening cycle would start during rising growth momentum. This time, however, central banks are likely to tighten as fiscal stimulus fades.
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This means the Fed might have to hike faster, suddenly slamming on the brakes throwing investors in the wind.
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Jan 22
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Given how important this is, here's a quick summary:
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Jan 21
Here's a quick update on our Asia Currencies & Commodities views in partnership with @SGX, so you can keep an update on the markets that matter🐝
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Here are some key takeaways 🧵
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Dec 13, 2021
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Grey Swans are those low-probability, high-impact events that few expect.

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(2/13)
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With a Magic Wand: COVID All But Disappears

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Feb 27, 2021
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