*⃣Thread on #COVID19 deaths*⃣
Officially reported C19 deaths in India crossed half a million (500087) although many studies estimate the true number to be between 3-4 million.
This chart shows % share of reported deaths & compares it with the % adult population in each state. 1/
Some states stand out on this chart: #Kerala with only 2.84% of adults has reported 11.3% of all deaths. #Maharashtra with 9.7% adults reported 28.6% of deaths. #Uttarpradesh with 15.7% of adults reported only 4.7% of deaths. #Bihar w/ 7.8% adults reported just 2.5% of deaths.
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#Gujarat with 5.2% adults reported only 2.1% deaths. #Rajasthan with 5.5% adults reported just 1.9% of deaths. #Telangana with 3% adults reported only 0.8% deaths.
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Now take a look at the number of doctors per 10,000 population in each state in India:
Here, take a look at the percentage of deaths usually registered in each state even during a normal year.
Source: CRS Report 2018. 5/
In general, states with relatively better healthcare infrastructure & death registration have reported a higher % of deaths in comparison to their share in the adult population.
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That some of these states have hugely under-reported the deaths is obvious from the fact they have approved #COVID19 ex-gratia compensation claims many times higher than their officially recorded deaths. Table by @BollyNumbers.
Obviously, the official discourse on this will be purely based on reported deaths which would essentially reward the states that reported lower deaths & punish the ones which were relatively better at reporting.
But that doesn't erase the fact that the dead are dead.
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While GoI was quick to "debunk" most, if not all, studies estimating the true C19 deaths in India, so far, they haven't come up with one of their own, either. 9/
All the focus is on #Kerala's #COVID19 cases as it contributed ~68% of new cases in India y'day.
Politically, it's become a major tool of attack against the state & its government.
This thread tries to make some sense of the COVID19 numbers from Kerala.
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Many are asking why Kerala is reporting so many cases while the rest of India seems to have flattened it.
Yet, I'm actually surprised why Kerala is reporting only so many cases when it should be actually reporting 40K+ daily cases already.
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The current rise in cases was inevitable with the somewhat irrational lockdown relaxations & increased mobility that is visible over the past several weeks. It is only the reduced testing that is still holding the reported cases well below 40K.
This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL
I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread. 1/
First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.
Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases. 2/
One major argument against my original thread was that I used an old ICMR serosurvey. Yes, because a new one was not yet available. When it became available, it didn't change a thing. See the article I wrote deriving same conclusions using 4th survey. 3/ science.thewire.in/health/why-is-…
.@MoHFW_INDIA has quickly come up with another #MythsVsFacts to "debunk" one more report highlighting India's #COVID19 deaths undercounting as they've done multiple times in the past.
As usual, the rebuttal itself is rich in myths & low on facts. 1/
The original study by the @CGDev & authored by respected authors including Dr. @arvindsubraman, former chief economist to GoI, estimates that India may have undercounted #COVID19 deaths by 10 times. The study can be found here. 2/ cgdev.org/publication/th…
The major problem GoI seems to have is that this study "audacious"ly assumed the same international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data ignoring the fact that the authors have used 3 different methods to derive their numbers.
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Has #Kerala miserably failed in containing #COVID19 pandemic?
This is a question I keep getting from various quarters. This thread is an attempt to explain it. 1/
Using the latest ICMR 3rd sero survey results during Dec 2020, we can see that #Kerala was able to identify & report one in every 5 cases, while all of India was able to identify only 1 in every 28 cases.
It shows the effectiveness of testing strategy used in Kerala 2/
Testing after good tracing & tracking would make it much more effective. This may result in higher TPR, but it's a cost effective use of testing infrastructure
Kerala has not only done nearly double the number of tests per million but it had a much better case detection rate.
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