Thread by @vmorkevicius

#Lithuania’s President makes a good point: deterrence requires making aggression against #Ukraine too costly.

The usual ways of communicating high costs have been discussed elsewhere by really smart people (prepare sanctions, send military aid, etc.)/1

lrp.lt/en/news/the-pr…

One tool used to construct deterrence is sometimes called a “trip wire.” The logic is that a small force, too small to really defend itself or anyone else, could be deployed abroad to demonstrate commitment by being prepared to die. /2

As @MMalksoo points out, tripwires are as much about symbolism as anything, and thus tell us a great deal about the nature of the relationship between the participating powers. /3

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…

And while Dan Reiter and @ProfPaulPoast argue that military tripwires may not do much to bolster deterrence, reading their arguments in conversation with Malksoo’s made me wonder — what about political leaders as tripwires? /4

tnsr.org/2021/06/the-tr…

After all, there’s been quite a parade of political leaders —presidents, prime ministers, foreign ministers— through Kyiv in the last few weeks, from🇺🇸Secretary of State Blinken &🇨🇦 Foreign Minister Joly in January, to🇬🇧PM Johnson,🇵🇱 PM Morawiecki, & 🇳🇱 PM Rutte February 1. /5

Then 🇹🇷 President Erdogan was in Kyiv February 3, 🇩🇪FM Baerbock & her 🇨🇿,🇸🇰,& 🇦🇹counterparts were there February 7-8,and 🇫🇷President Macron & the 🇪🇪 Parliament President Ratas visited on the 8th too. /6

🇱🇹PM Ingrida Šimonytė’s visit yesterday and today was just the most recent... /7

So all this flurry of activity got me thinking, what if the presidents & prime ministers and foreign ministers of various EU & NATO states (especially, frankly, the bigger ones) made a rota to be sure there was always at least one major leader visiting #Ukraine every day? /8

It would be a costly signal (lots of $ for flights and security details) and a signal of a willingness to accept some real risk on behalf of #Ukraine.

But unlike sending a small number of forces, this diplomatic tripwire couldn’t be construed as a provocation. /9