Thread by @vmorkevicius

Under the auspices of the #OSCE Vienna Document, #Ukraine has officially asked #Russia to provide information about its military exercises near Ukraine's borders. /1

osce.org/fsc/74528

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1492147497460023298

On February 9, #Estonia, #Latvia, and #Lithuania did the same regarding joint exercises between #Russia and #Belarus taking place now in Belarus. /2

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1491451290181935114?s=20&t=z_pgJfJ9sgPfd8GWozGt9w

Unsurprisingly, it seems Belarus' response has been insufficiently transparent. /3

https://twitter.com/MFAestonia/status/1492162252241260544?s=20&t=z_pgJfJ9sgPfd8GWozGt9w

The OSCE's Vienna Document aims to ensure stability in Europe by fostering transparency amongst the various states.

The idea is that a permanent mechanism for sharing military information could prevent misunderstandings that could lead to conflict. /4

osce.org/fsc/74528

By invoking the @OSCE Vienna Document, #Ukraine and the #Baltics are, diplomatically speaking, trying to call the Kremlin's bluff. /5

The #Kremlin has repeatedly stated in recent days that Russia has the right to move its forces on its own territory as it desires (which is true) and that the buildup is part of an exercise (perhaps) and in response to an increased threat from Ukraine/EU/NATO/US (not so much). /6

The #Kremlin has also stated that it is committed to the concept of indivisible security in Europe, and has claimed that Ukraine/EU/NATO/US are not. /7

politico.eu/article/russia…

In making this claim, the #Kremlin has also been appealing to the OSCE, in particular the 1999 Istanbul Document. /8

osce.org/files/f/docume…

The Kremlin's focus has been on the language of indivisible security, while ignoring (and even denying) other bits, including the parts about the "right to be or not to be a party to treaties of alliance" and about balance of forces. /9

If the Kremlin is as nervous about a supposed threat of military attack coming from #Ukraine or from #NATO, it too could appeal to the OSCE Vienna document and ask for greater transparency. But it hasn't done so, which is telling. /10

Similarly, the response from the Kremlin and Minsk to demands for greater transparency about the military exercises will be telling as well.

If these are just ordinary exercises, the Kremlin can assuage its neighbors concerns by inviting observers and providing information./11

Unwillingness to cooperate through the OSCE should be seen as a warning sign.

After all, much about these "exercises" is strange already. The Western exercises for 2021 occurred in September; 2022's big exercises are supposed to be in the east... /12

tass.com/defense/1373113

Although I'm a realist & hence skeptical about the influence of international institutions, they can be useful forums for encouraging the kind of transparency that avoids "accidental" wars caused by misinterpretation of other's behaviors & miscalculation about their response. /13

Indeed, an awareness of the value of transparency and communication (and how the lack of both can cause insecurity) underlies the US & NATO response to Russia's demands, much of which focuses on making NATO's force posture more transparent. /14

elpais.com/infografias/20…