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Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
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Feb 12 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
Interesting— #Lukashenko’s messaging is out of synch with #Putin’s.

The #Kremlin says that Russian forces are in #Belarus for joint exercises— but Lukashenko denies this in his response to the OSCE. /1

tass.com/defense/1389595
The #Kremlin has repeatedly asserted its right to carry out joint exercises in #Belarus as part of Allied Resolve 2022, and #Lukshenko was also describe by it as an exercise back in January. /2

sb.by/en/joint-russi…
Even last week though, #Lukshenko was sending some mixed messages about the “exercise.” /3
This mixed messaging is worrying in two directions: it might signal something about a possible invasion of #Ukraine and it might also reveal something about threats to #Belarus’ sovereignty. /4
In other words, did Lukashenko let slip something here about #Putin’s intentions, or is he feeling sidelined right now and wanting to push back and assert his own leadership role?

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More from @vmorkevicius

Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 13
This is an important question.

#Ukraine is already paying the cost of the #Kremlin’s threatened invasion. /1
As of February 14, reinsurers will no longer cover commercial airlines flying into or over Ukraine, essentially creating a civilian no-fly zone.

The effects on business travel, tourism, and ordinary life are obvious. /2

kyivindependent.com/national/ukrai…
Ukrainian shipping has been affected by Russia’s wide-ranging exercises in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which effectively blockaded Ukrainian ports. The latter has now been reopened: exercises continue in the former. /3

israelhayom.com/2022/02/13/in-…
Read 7 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 12
It seems that the #Kremlin doesn’t appreciate the free press covering the unilateral and unusually large build up of Russian forces along the borders of #Ukraine.

But news you don’t like or don’t want to have reported isn’t inherently “fake news.” /1
This isn’t to say there isn’t room for improvement (oops, Bloomberg!), not that some of the headlines have been worded in sensationalist, clickbait-y ways. /2

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
But the simple fact is that an extremely large number of Russian forces, contrary to their usual habits and contrary to their usual schedule of exercises, have gathered on the Russian and Belarusian borders with #Ukraine, while the Kremlin has issued repeated threats. /3
Read 4 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 12
#Lithuania’s President makes a good point: deterrence requires making aggression against #Ukraine too costly.

The usual ways of communicating high costs have been discussed elsewhere by really smart people (prepare sanctions, send military aid, etc.)/1

lrp.lt/en/news/the-pr…
One tool used to construct deterrence is sometimes called a “trip wire.” The logic is that a small force, too small to really defend itself or anyone else, could be deployed abroad to demonstrate commitment by being prepared to die. /2
As @MMalksoo points out, tripwires are as much about symbolism as anything, and thus tell us a great deal about the nature of the relationship between the participating powers. /3

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…
Read 9 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 12
Specifically, using #Afghanistan’s foreign reserves in this way is unjust.

That the funds shouldn’t go straight into the hands of the Taliban goes without saying. But they should absolutely be used or held only for the benefit of the Afghan people. /1
Yes, Taliban rule over Afghanistan was a permissive condition for the terrorism of 9/11. A different set of leaders might have had the will and the capability to prevent al Qaeda from setting up shop in their state. /2
But even if we lay some responsibility at the Taliban’s feet, it seems strange to lay so much there when no similar sanction has been placed on other countries where al Qaeda has been active or from whose citizens al Qaeda received financial aid. /3

nytimes.com/interactive/pr…
Read 7 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 11
Under the auspices of the #OSCE Vienna Document, #Ukraine has officially asked #Russia to provide information about its military exercises near Ukraine's borders. /1

osce.org/fsc/74528
On February 9, #Estonia, #Latvia, and #Lithuania did the same regarding joint exercises between #Russia and #Belarus taking place now in Belarus. /2

Unsurprisingly, it seems Belarus' response has been insufficiently transparent. /3

Read 14 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Nov 7, 2021
There is no doubt that the manufactured migrant crisis along Belarus’ border with Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland is a deliberate political tactic aimed at punishing these states for their critique of #Lukashenko’s authoritarianism and at sowing division between EU states. /1
Lukashenko has made getting a visa to enter #Belarus easier, made getting a flight to Minsk easier, and used the military to make crossing the border to the EU easier, too.

But I want to talk about the ethical dimensions. /2

bbc.com/news/world-589…

infomigrants.net/en/post/36063/…
#Lukashenko is engaging in state-sponsored human trafficking.

Language matters.

When we speak of “hybrid warfare” or “weaponized migration,” it becomes all too easy to imagine the migrants themselves as weapons, as threats. /3

infomigrants.net/en/post/36100/…

reuters.com/world/europe/g…
Read 27 tweets

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