It seems the lower house of the Duma will consider two draft proposals on Tuesday— one calling directly in Putin to recognize Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and a second one asking Putin to consult with the Defense and Foreign Ministries first. /1

themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/14/rus…
The first proposal was brought forward by the Communist party and the Just Russia party, which together hold under 20% of the seats in the lower Duma.

The second was brought by Putin’s United Russia party, which holds the vast majority of the seats. /2

csis.org/analysis/will-…
Recognizing the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics would eliminate the Kremlin’s need for the pretense that this is an internal Ukrainian problem that the Kremlin is merely concerned about as a neighbor. /3
After all, per the Minsk protocols, the political solution is meant to be decentralization within Ukraine.

And Ukraine has, indeed, implemented a series of reforms aimed at just that. /4

peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemak…

chathamhouse.org/sites/default/…

wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukra…
And Ukraine has already committed to continued reforms aimed at increasing decentralization / encouraging local autonomy. /5

oecd.org/eurasia/compet…
And here is a helpful article from @voxukraine outlining the reforms made so far and their results, as well as debunking some politicians’ misleading claims about the process. /6

voxukraine.org/en/decentraliz…

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More from @vmorkevicius

Feb 15
The #Kremlin signals with one hand that it’s interested in diplomacy — and perhaps it is — but with the other it’s continuing to ratchet up the pressure on #Ukraine, through political maneuvering, #disinformation operations, and #cyber attacks. /1
Today the Duma voted to ask #Putin to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states. If Putin does so, the Minsk peace agreements would be effectively made void. /2

english.pravda.ru/news/russia/15…
The language used to describe this action in Pravda is especially telling. Note the claim that this action is “morally justified,” and more important the claim that recognition will “protect” the population from “external threats” and “the policy of genocide.” /4 Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 15
@peterpomeranzev’s choice of words here is excellent. The old slogan, “For Your Freedom and Ours” is meaningful not just in #Lithuania, but in the region more broadly.

And it captures an important point for today’s situation: freedom, like security, is indivisible. /1 Image
An old thread about the origins of the phrase, and some of its implications… /2
One of the early movements calling for democracy in Poland (in the 1970s) invoked the phrase; counter-protesters demanding a return to a more liberal democracy marched under it in 2017. /3

polishfreedom.pl/en/document/to…

Read 9 tweets
Feb 13
This is an important question.

#Ukraine is already paying the cost of the #Kremlin’s threatened invasion. /1
As of February 14, reinsurers will no longer cover commercial airlines flying into or over Ukraine, essentially creating a civilian no-fly zone.

The effects on business travel, tourism, and ordinary life are obvious. /2

kyivindependent.com/national/ukrai…
Ukrainian shipping has been affected by Russia’s wide-ranging exercises in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which effectively blockaded Ukrainian ports. The latter has now been reopened: exercises continue in the former. /3

israelhayom.com/2022/02/13/in-…
Read 7 tweets
Feb 12
It seems that the #Kremlin doesn’t appreciate the free press covering the unilateral and unusually large build up of Russian forces along the borders of #Ukraine.

But news you don’t like or don’t want to have reported isn’t inherently “fake news.” /1
This isn’t to say there isn’t room for improvement (oops, Bloomberg!), not that some of the headlines have been worded in sensationalist, clickbait-y ways. /2

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
But the simple fact is that an extremely large number of Russian forces, contrary to their usual habits and contrary to their usual schedule of exercises, have gathered on the Russian and Belarusian borders with #Ukraine, while the Kremlin has issued repeated threats. /3
Read 4 tweets
Feb 12
Interesting— #Lukashenko’s messaging is out of synch with #Putin’s.

The #Kremlin says that Russian forces are in #Belarus for joint exercises— but Lukashenko denies this in his response to the OSCE. /1

tass.com/defense/1389595
The #Kremlin has repeatedly asserted its right to carry out joint exercises in #Belarus as part of Allied Resolve 2022, and #Lukshenko was also describe by it as an exercise back in January. /2

sb.by/en/joint-russi…
Even last week though, #Lukshenko was sending some mixed messages about the “exercise.” /3
Read 5 tweets
Feb 12
#Lithuania’s President makes a good point: deterrence requires making aggression against #Ukraine too costly.

The usual ways of communicating high costs have been discussed elsewhere by really smart people (prepare sanctions, send military aid, etc.)/1

lrp.lt/en/news/the-pr…
One tool used to construct deterrence is sometimes called a “trip wire.” The logic is that a small force, too small to really defend itself or anyone else, could be deployed abroad to demonstrate commitment by being prepared to die. /2
As @MMalksoo points out, tripwires are as much about symbolism as anything, and thus tell us a great deal about the nature of the relationship between the participating powers. /3

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…
Read 9 tweets

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