Share this page!

Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Twitter logo
Feb 15 • 12 tweets • 8 min read
The #Kremlin signals with one hand that it’s interested in diplomacy — and perhaps it is — but with the other it’s continuing to ratchet up the pressure on #Ukraine, through political maneuvering, #disinformation operations, and #cyber attacks. /1
Today the Duma voted to ask #Putin to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states. If Putin does so, the Minsk peace agreements would be effectively made void. /2

english.pravda.ru/news/russia/15…
The language used to describe this action in Pravda is especially telling. Note the claim that this action is “morally justified,” and more important the claim that recognition will “protect” the population from “external threats” and “the policy of genocide.” /4 Image
And while #Putin won’t confirm whether or not he’ll follow up on the Duma’s recommendation, he confidently (and falsely) asserted that he believes that a genocide is occurring. /5
Note: There isn’t and hasn’t been a genocide in Donbas & the #Kremlin has never provided evidence of one to any international organization. /6

euvsdisinfo.eu/report/russia-…

state.gov/fact-vs-fictio…

It didn’t even mention it at the Security Council in January.

un.org/press/en/2022/…
Instead, this false claim is a part of a #disinformation campaign against #Ukraine, aimed at delegitimizing it not only as a democratic state, but as a state deserving of sovereignty. /7
Keep in mind that the #Kremlin has often used the language of the emerging #R2P (Responsibility to Protect) norm to justify intervention in its neighbors’ affairs. /8

crisisgroup.org/europe-central…

un.org/en/genocidepre…
The volume of #disinformation accusing #Ukraine of provocative actions continues to increase. Here’s a very useful threat of claims just from today. /9
And more #cyber attacks were reported today, too. /10
And while the #Kremlin claims some of its exercises are ending and troops are being withdrawn, there is no evidence of that happening — quite the opposite, in fact. /11
And this is the tone in #Kremlin controlled media today— hardly a sign of softening. /12
I am very glad that, as Chancellor Scholz said today, “diplomatic possibilities are far from being exhausted,” but it’s important to remain sober. The threat against #Ukraine’s sovereignty and peace in Europe remains very real. /fin

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Valerie Morkevičius

Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @vmorkevicius

Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 15
@peterpomeranzev’s choice of words here is excellent. The old slogan, “For Your Freedom and Ours” is meaningful not just in #Lithuania, but in the region more broadly.

And it captures an important point for today’s situation: freedom, like security, is indivisible. /1
An old thread about the origins of the phrase, and some of its implications… /2
One of the early movements calling for democracy in Poland (in the 1970s) invoked the phrase; counter-protesters demanding a return to a more liberal democracy marched under it in 2017. /3

polishfreedom.pl/en/document/to…

Read 9 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 14
It seems the lower house of the Duma will consider two draft proposals on Tuesday— one calling directly in Putin to recognize Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and a second one asking Putin to consult with the Defense and Foreign Ministries first. /1

themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/14/rus…
The first proposal was brought forward by the Communist party and the Just Russia party, which together hold under 20% of the seats in the lower Duma.

The second was brought by Putin’s United Russia party, which holds the vast majority of the seats. /2

csis.org/analysis/will-…
Recognizing the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics would eliminate the Kremlin’s need for the pretense that this is an internal Ukrainian problem that the Kremlin is merely concerned about as a neighbor. /3
Read 6 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 13
This is an important question.

#Ukraine is already paying the cost of the #Kremlin’s threatened invasion. /1
As of February 14, reinsurers will no longer cover commercial airlines flying into or over Ukraine, essentially creating a civilian no-fly zone.

The effects on business travel, tourism, and ordinary life are obvious. /2

kyivindependent.com/national/ukrai…
Ukrainian shipping has been affected by Russia’s wide-ranging exercises in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which effectively blockaded Ukrainian ports. The latter has now been reopened: exercises continue in the former. /3

israelhayom.com/2022/02/13/in-…
Read 7 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 12
It seems that the #Kremlin doesn’t appreciate the free press covering the unilateral and unusually large build up of Russian forces along the borders of #Ukraine.

But news you don’t like or don’t want to have reported isn’t inherently “fake news.” /1
This isn’t to say there isn’t room for improvement (oops, Bloomberg!), not that some of the headlines have been worded in sensationalist, clickbait-y ways. /2

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
But the simple fact is that an extremely large number of Russian forces, contrary to their usual habits and contrary to their usual schedule of exercises, have gathered on the Russian and Belarusian borders with #Ukraine, while the Kremlin has issued repeated threats. /3
Read 4 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 12
Interesting— #Lukashenko’s messaging is out of synch with #Putin’s.

The #Kremlin says that Russian forces are in #Belarus for joint exercises— but Lukashenko denies this in his response to the OSCE. /1

tass.com/defense/1389595
The #Kremlin has repeatedly asserted its right to carry out joint exercises in #Belarus as part of Allied Resolve 2022, and #Lukshenko was also describe by it as an exercise back in January. /2

sb.by/en/joint-russi…
Even last week though, #Lukshenko was sending some mixed messages about the “exercise.” /3
Read 5 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 12
#Lithuania’s President makes a good point: deterrence requires making aggression against #Ukraine too costly.

The usual ways of communicating high costs have been discussed elsewhere by really smart people (prepare sanctions, send military aid, etc.)/1

lrp.lt/en/news/the-pr…
One tool used to construct deterrence is sometimes called a “trip wire.” The logic is that a small force, too small to really defend itself or anyone else, could be deployed abroad to demonstrate commitment by being prepared to die. /2
As @MMalksoo points out, tripwires are as much about symbolism as anything, and thus tell us a great deal about the nature of the relationship between the participating powers. /3

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @vmorkevicius has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @vmorkevicius!

Read all threads by @vmorkevicius

:(