We computed 3 scenario pathways: 1) Duplicated three utilities IRPs 2) Clean economy by 2050 using utility generation 3) Clean economy by 2050 using both utility & distributed generation (via co-optimization)
Main results (1)
Lower costs for customers ($773 p/a for res. + comm. & $70K p/a for industrial) compared with IRP.
Main results (2)
Retail rates are substantially lower in all scenarios (including IRP), but addition reductions found in the electrified and decarbonized scenarios. This is important to encourage electrification. Total spending increases for electricity as more units required.
Main results (3)
The installed capacity of generation is primarily wind with solar, storage & novel generation assisting. Distributed solar and storage help reshape demand effectively. Retiring coal and natural gas becomes a priority.
Main results (4)
The additional generation capacity leads to more jobs in the electricity sector. Some will transition from other sectors as well. There are many more jobs in the electrified and decarbonized scenarios.
Main results (5)
To electrify and decarbonize reduces the emission of GHGs into the atmosphere. In fact, these scenarios avoid 2,000 Tg of CO2 entering the atmosphere compared with the IRP pathway.
Main results (6)
In addition, other pollutants that cause damaging health issues are reduced and avoided. These are substantially reduced in the electrified and decarbonized scenarios. Essentially eliminated by 2050.
Main results (7)
The WIS:dom-P model ensures that the grid is powered every 5-minutes across each 3-km grid cell without fail and with load following and planning reserves over multiple weather years through 2050. The third scenario uses all its resources in combination.
Main results (8)
The siting within WIS:dom-P plans the grid with generation, transmission, storage, H2, and distributed resources throughout the optimization. It takes into consideration restricted lands, limited access, and other land-use change considerations.
In summary 1) Michigan can do better than current IRPs 2) It can even electrify & decarbonize economy at low cost 3) It is important to consider health, cost, land-use and other factors when determining pathways 4) Understand there are other pathways available.
We released a report yesterday w/ @350Montana & @GridLabEnergy on "Affordable & Reliable
Decarbonization Pathways for
Montana." Here is a short thread...
We performed five scenarios for the MT #grid. Long-story-short, the MT grid can run #reliably without #coal or #naturalgas & become 100% #renewable by 2035. MT still needs import/exports w/ other regions; but exports far more than imports. Image shown is 2050.
Here is a look at the #Texas Wind (avg over all state) for each month for last 175 years. It's the average capacity factor for each month. Our climate data suggests events like that of the last few weeks will occur ~4 more times before 2050.
Here is the same analysis for #solar across #Texas. Please note that these plots assume uniform installations across all of the state.
Here are the same plots, but weekly rather than monthly. More noisy, but we think useful!
Today, we have released our full technical report on the "Why Local Solar and Storage Costs Less". Two weeks ago, we released the main findings: savings of $473 billion when co-optimizing distribution. This released provides more details!
The full technical report shows that the cost savings comes from lower distribution spending and higher utilization of variable renewables. The additional costs of local solar and storage are much lower than the benefits unlocked. #energytwitter
We present four (of our 15) scenarios that show what DERs can do under BAU and a nationwide CES. We augmented our WIS:dom®-P modeling software during the course of the study to better represent the distribution grid. We did this using an interface (or event horizon)
⚡️NEW STUDY RELEASE⚡️: Consumer, Employment, and Environmental Benefits of Electricity Transmission Expansion in the Eastern United States w/ @CleanEnergyGrid@gogginmichael@DrChrisClack. A short thread...
High-level: If the Eastern US aims for 95% GHG reduction by 2050 (65% by 2035) it could have 6 million new jobs, $100 billion reduced costs, and over 80% generation from wind and solar. How? This is enabled by new high-voltage transmission connecting everything together
Note that transmission and storage actually work together in a decarbonized grid because they provide complementary benefits. Storage provides temporal diversity and transmission provides geographic diversity. The sum of the two are greater than the parts.
Colorado can reduce electricity cumulatively save $1.8 billion by 2040. At the same time, it can grow the electricity job market by 70,000 and reduce GHG emissions by 75% from 2005 levels.