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Andreas Umland Profile picture
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Feb 24 • 3 tweets • 4 min read
1. The logic of Russian propaganda is now: Once the Jewish-born President of #Ukraine is kicked out of office and the country, Ukraine will be #denazified!
@Report_Antisem @Konflikt_Sicher @IsraelinUkraine @UKRinIsrael @H__Ukraine @UkrVerstehen @TerekMedia 2. #PavelGubarev - one of the first official leaders of the pro-Russian separatists & a March 2014 self-proclaimed "people's governor" of #Donetsk. Left: As a young member of the neo-Nazi #RussianNationalUnity. Right: In 2014 with the St. George's Band symbol of the separatists.
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More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 25
Lots of reporting by journalists full of empathy for #Ukraine. Yet, some hard Western national interest issues remain under the radar screen:
1. Europe's largest #NuclearPowerPlant at Zaporizhzhia in South-East Ukraine is now very close to the combat zone.
forbes.com/sites/craighoo…
2. Its six reactors provide electricity for large parts of Ukraine, and cannot be switched off. They need a functioning personnel support and infrastructure. Otherwise their operation becomes risky.
3. #Ukraine has ca. 40 million inhabitants. If electricity, heating, water supply, etc. stop working, those who can will run westwards. How exactly is the EU going to distribute and deal with millions of such #refugees?
Read 6 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 24
1. Putin claims to be "denazifying" a country that has a president with a Jewish family background. In 2019, the Russian-speaking Ukrainian Jew Zelenskyy won free elections with a result of 73%.
tass.com/politics/14091…
2. He replaced a non-Jewish incumbent who suffered, from a Jewish challenger, the worst defeat of a presidential candidate in Ukrainian history. Ukraine's united far right gained 2.15% in the 2019 parliamenrary elections.
3. Hundreds of Western "antifascist" journalists and even some scholars have helped Putin since 2014 with their alarmist statements warning about the surprisingly weak Ukrainian far right.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 22
RUSSIA'S EXPANSION
1. While most analysts see primarily a crime, I see primarily an error in Putin’s recognition of the two Russia-created East Ukrainian pseudo-states. This and the entry of regular Russian troops into the occupied territory are doubtlessly criminal & worrisome.
2. Yet, the East Ukrainian reality on the ground has so far not changed much with this "illegal legal" act and additional military presence. Instead, the larger political constellation of the conflict is arguably shifting to #Russia's disadvantage.
3. First, the always dubious and #Kremlin-imposed #MinskAgreements will not any longer be available as instruments of #Russian political pressure on #Ukraine. Second, the #West will now close ranks with Ukraine in view of #Russia's new blatant violation of #InternationalLaw.
Read 7 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 21
1. Western politicians have not yet understood that they need to find adequate answers to an escalation of not only & not so much Russian traditional warfare, but also of Moscow's already intense hybrid war (economic, cyber, etc.) against #Ukraine, e.g.: researchgate.net/publication/29…
2. The Ukrainian state can collapse not only following a large Russian armed invasion, but also as a result of its continued subversion, destabilization & sabotage. Putin may choose the second option in order to avoid Western "monster sanctions" while achieving the same effects.
3. The repercussion for the EU of a Ukrainian collapse as a result of Russian hybrid warfare could be similar to those of an "ordinary" military offensive. The Kremlin primarily wants a destruction of rather than necessarily a war against a pro-Western Ukrainian state.
Read 7 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 18
My five kopecks on the current "correlation of forces" here in #Ukraine, building on @jhzachau's and my rough scenarios outline for the @SCEEUS_UI @UISweden below:
1. It is now increasingly likely that some kind of #Russian escalation will happen.
ui.se/forskning/cent…
2. This could, for instance, aim to bring the borders of the so-called "people's republics" in the #Donbas in line with their "constitutions" which claim that the entire #Donetsk and #Luhansk #oblasts belong to these pseudo-states.
3. Intensified shelling by the “republics” of government-controlled locations as well as an array of non-kinetic attacks on #Ukraine have already begun. kyivindependent.com/national/over-…
Read 10 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 13
1. Auch Risikoanalyse im ureigenen Interesse tut Not: Als offizieller #Nuklearwaffenstaat untergräbt #Russland|s offizielle Gebietserweiterung auf Kosten eines offiziellen #Nichtkernwaffenstaat|es die Logik des ratifizierten #Atomwaffensperrvertrag|s.
tagesspiegel.de/politik/konfli…
2. Moskaus #Krimannexion und Krieg gegen die #Ukraine sowie die weitgehend symbolische internationale Reaktion darauf kann andere Naionen künftig ermutigen, nicht so dumm wie die #nuklearwaffenfreien #Ukrainer und vielmehr so smart wie die #kernwaffenstarrenden #Russen zu sein.
3. Es könnten demnächst Millionen ukrainischer Flüchtlinge in die EU, ja womöglich nach Deutschland selbst strömen. Was genau tut Berlin bei Ankunft der zweiten, dritten... Million verzweifelter Menschen über die grüne EU-Ostgrenze? Mauer & Stacheldraht an der Oder-Neisse-Linie?
Read 6 tweets

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