My five kopecks on the current "correlation of forces" here in #Ukraine, building on @jhzachau's and my rough scenarios outline for the @SCEEUS_UI @UISweden below:
1. It is now increasingly likely that some kind of #Russian escalation will happen.
ui.se/forskning/cent…
1. It is now increasingly likely that some kind of #Russian escalation will happen.
ui.se/forskning/cent…
2. This could, for instance, aim to bring the borders of the so-called "people's republics" in the #Donbas in line with their "constitutions" which claim that the entire #Donetsk and #Luhansk #oblasts belong to these pseudo-states.
3. Intensified shelling by the “republics” of government-controlled locations as well as an array of non-kinetic attacks on #Ukraine have already begun. kyivindependent.com/national/over-…
4. Yet, given the size of the Russian economy and depth of its integration into the world economy, a major all-out Russian war to conquer larger Ukrainian territories remains unlikely. weforum.org/agenda/2020/10…
5. #Russia could pull off such a war, if it had a larger economy or one less dependent on international trade, or both. But as it stands, the #Russianeconomy is highly vulnerable to external shocks. See @erikandermo & @MartinKragh1 on #sanctions' effects:
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
6. Rather than starting a major offensive, Moscow may thus instead gradually increase tensions undertaking more and more kinetic actions against, as well as non-military subversion of, Ukraine. See @andre_hartel @SWP_EEE in Nov. on a step-by-step invasion: swp-berlin.org/publikation/ru…
7. A Western response could be to start a congruent sanctions mechanism in which growing Russian hybrid warfare against Ukraine triggers a parallel cascade of transparent & permanent restrictions for Russian companies and individuals. See @maria_shagina washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
8. Each kinetic or non-kinetic escalation would lead to some additional measured #sanction while a larger attack should set in motion a broader punishment across several sectors by the EU, US et al. See @AngelaStent @edwardfishman @AKendallTaylor @CNASdc: cnas.org/publications/r…
9. Such a scheme can be effective, if it is clearly outlined, consistently operationalized & diligently implemented. Securing cross-national discipline within the Western community would demand that the unity @JoeBiden & @OlafScholz talked about will now be realized in practice.
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