1. Western politicians have not yet understood that they need to find adequate answers to an escalation of not only & not so much Russian traditional warfare, but also of Moscow's already intense hybrid war (economic, cyber, etc.) against #Ukraine, e.g.: researchgate.net/publication/29…
2. The Ukrainian state can collapse not only following a large Russian armed invasion, but also as a result of its continued subversion, destabilization & sabotage. Putin may choose the second option in order to avoid Western "monster sanctions" while achieving the same effects.
3. The repercussion for the EU of a Ukrainian collapse as a result of Russian hybrid warfare could be similar to those of an "ordinary" military offensive. The Kremlin primarily wants a destruction of rather than necessarily a war against a pro-Western Ukrainian state.
4. However, for the EU the aftereffects could be roughly similar. For instance, whether millions of Ukrainian refugees flee into the EU from a collapsing Ukrainian state that was hybridlike undermined rather than militarily defeated by Russia may not make much of a difference.
5. Whether one of the 15 active Ukrainian nuclear reactors malfunctions as a result of direct hit by a Russian grenade or because of gaps in an NPP's infra- or/and personnel structure resulting from Russian subversion of Ukraine's socio-economic system may be insubstantial.
6. Whether political leaders across the world learn about the ineffectiveness of the nuclear non-proliferation regime through Ukrainian state failure via more traditional or more hybrid warfare may not influence much the conclusions they make about national security or expansion.
7. The official nuclear-weapons-state Russia may use either its regular army or various irregular units & methods to crush the non-nuclear-weapons state Ukraine. Future statespeople may conclude that it is, in any way, wise to have atomic warheads rather than security guarantees.

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More from @UmlandAndreas

Feb 22
RUSSIA'S EXPANSION
1. While most analysts see primarily a crime, I see primarily an error in Putin’s recognition of the two Russia-created East Ukrainian pseudo-states. This and the entry of regular Russian troops into the occupied territory are doubtlessly criminal & worrisome. Image
2. Yet, the East Ukrainian reality on the ground has so far not changed much with this "illegal legal" act and additional military presence. Instead, the larger political constellation of the conflict is arguably shifting to #Russia's disadvantage.
3. First, the always dubious and #Kremlin-imposed #MinskAgreements will not any longer be available as instruments of #Russian political pressure on #Ukraine. Second, the #West will now close ranks with Ukraine in view of #Russia's new blatant violation of #InternationalLaw.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 18
My five kopecks on the current "correlation of forces" here in #Ukraine, building on @jhzachau's and my rough scenarios outline for the @SCEEUS_UI @UISweden below:
1. It is now increasingly likely that some kind of #Russian escalation will happen.
ui.se/forskning/cent…
2. This could, for instance, aim to bring the borders of the so-called "people's republics" in the #Donbas in line with their "constitutions" which claim that the entire #Donetsk and #Luhansk #oblasts belong to these pseudo-states.
3. Intensified shelling by the “republics” of government-controlled locations as well as an array of non-kinetic attacks on #Ukraine have already begun. kyivindependent.com/national/over-…
Read 10 tweets
Feb 13
1. Auch Risikoanalyse im ureigenen Interesse tut Not: Als offizieller #Nuklearwaffenstaat untergräbt #Russland|s offizielle Gebietserweiterung auf Kosten eines offiziellen #Nichtkernwaffenstaat|es die Logik des ratifizierten #Atomwaffensperrvertrag|s.
tagesspiegel.de/politik/konfli…
2. Moskaus #Krimannexion und Krieg gegen die #Ukraine sowie die weitgehend symbolische internationale Reaktion darauf kann andere Naionen künftig ermutigen, nicht so dumm wie die #nuklearwaffenfreien #Ukrainer und vielmehr so smart wie die #kernwaffenstarrenden #Russen zu sein.
3. Es könnten demnächst Millionen ukrainischer Flüchtlinge in die EU, ja womöglich nach Deutschland selbst strömen. Was genau tut Berlin bei Ankunft der zweiten, dritten... Million verzweifelter Menschen über die grüne EU-Ostgrenze? Mauer & Stacheldraht an der Oder-Neisse-Linie?
Read 6 tweets
Feb 12
1. A common Western misperception is that Ukrainians are unhappy about not getting enough direct help from the West.
euractiv.com/section/politi…
2. A far more salient desire here is that the West stops indirectly co-financing the Russian war against Ukraine via its intense trade, monetary and investment relations with Russia.
3. The Western talk about European values, international law, strong solidarity etc. appears as hollow, and the generous Western developmental help for Ukraine as ridiculous.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 26, 2021
1. Most #Ukrainian and #German experts interviewed for this investigation do not expect that a transit of power in Moscow will lead to an improvement of #Russia's relations to #Ukraine:
library.fes.de/pdf-files/buer…
@prismUA @EESRIorg @fes_russia @FESonline @FES_Europa @FESnewsbrief
2. While being a #German living in #Ukraine, I find myself, in contrast, in agreement with most #Russian experts who were polled in this #expertsurvey and who think that a change of leadership would have positive repercussions for Russian-#Ukrainian #relations.
@Konflikt_Sicher
3. Many thanks to #MarcelRöthig and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, and @MaksymKhylko of the Foreign Policy Council "#UkrainianPrism"​ for this excellent study!
library.fes.de/pdf-files/buer…
CC: @TerekMedia @NEC_Ukraine @ukraineoffice @UkrVerstehen @post_ukrainian @H__Ukraine @ACEurasia
Read 4 tweets
Dec 24, 2021
NOTHING PERSONAL? STRICTLY BUSINESS?
1/3: At first glance, these Russian company appointments look like commercial strategy. They, it seems, belong to the PRIVATE life of retired Western politicians who get remunerated for some Russian lobbying at home. Fishy, but understandable.
2/3: Yet, the example of #GerhardSchröder's role for the #Kremlin in Germany indicates that the appointments are part of a Russian GEOPOLITICAL strategy. It would be therefore of interest what position the POLITICAL homes of these Western politicians take.
3/3: Since the companies, the politicians work for are parts or clients of the Russian state, the parties where the politicians remain influential, like the #SPD, #LesRepublicains etc, turn into frameworks of Moscow's foreign affairs. Is that desirable, permissible, tolerable...?
Read 4 tweets

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