RUSSIA'S EXPANSION
1. While most analysts see primarily a crime, I see primarily an error in Putin’s recognition of the two Russia-created East Ukrainian pseudo-states. This and the entry of regular Russian troops into the occupied territory are doubtlessly criminal & worrisome.
1. While most analysts see primarily a crime, I see primarily an error in Putin’s recognition of the two Russia-created East Ukrainian pseudo-states. This and the entry of regular Russian troops into the occupied territory are doubtlessly criminal & worrisome.
2. Yet, the East Ukrainian reality on the ground has so far not changed much with this "illegal legal" act and additional military presence. Instead, the larger political constellation of the conflict is arguably shifting to #Russia's disadvantage.
3. First, the always dubious and #Kremlin-imposed #MinskAgreements will not any longer be available as instruments of #Russian political pressure on #Ukraine. Second, the #West will now close ranks with Ukraine in view of #Russia's new blatant violation of #InternationalLaw.
4. Third, serious sanctions will now be seemingly imposed on #Russia even without a major military #escalation yet starting (which may, to be sure, happen soon). Fourth, the #Russianeconomy, judging from the stock market reactions, seems to be taking a hit.
5. All other things being equal so far, the "correlation of forces" is arguably changing in favor of #Ukraine. Moreover, the domestic political gains for #Putin from the recognition are minor, or may turn out to be even negative.
6. The televised #RussianSecurityCouncil session and especially #Naryshkin's strange performance indicate that not all may be well in #Putin's kingdom.
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @RusVerstehen @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @TerekMedia @LawUkrainian @ictopyk @ACEurasia @H__Ukraine
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @RusVerstehen @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @TerekMedia @LawUkrainian @ictopyk @ACEurasia @H__Ukraine
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