RUSSIA'S EXPANSION
1. While most analysts see primarily a crime, I see primarily an error in Putin’s recognition of the two Russia-created East Ukrainian pseudo-states. This and the entry of regular Russian troops into the occupied territory are doubtlessly criminal & worrisome.
2. Yet, the East Ukrainian reality on the ground has so far not changed much with this "illegal legal" act and additional military presence. Instead, the larger political constellation of the conflict is arguably shifting to #Russia's disadvantage.
3. First, the always dubious and #Kremlin-imposed #MinskAgreements will not any longer be available as instruments of #Russian political pressure on #Ukraine. Second, the #West will now close ranks with Ukraine in view of #Russia's new blatant violation of #InternationalLaw.
4. Third, serious sanctions will now be seemingly imposed on #Russia even without a major military #escalation yet starting (which may, to be sure, happen soon). Fourth, the #Russianeconomy, judging from the stock market reactions, seems to be taking a hit.
5. All other things being equal so far, the "correlation of forces" is arguably changing in favor of #Ukraine. Moreover, the domestic political gains for #Putin from the recognition are minor, or may turn out to be even negative.
6. The televised #RussianSecurityCouncil session and especially #Naryshkin's strange performance indicate that not all may be well in #Putin's kingdom.
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @RusVerstehen @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @TerekMedia @LawUkrainian @ictopyk @ACEurasia @H__Ukraine

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More from @UmlandAndreas

Feb 24
1. Putin claims to be "denazifying" a country that has a president with a Jewish family background. In 2019, the Russian-speaking Ukrainian Jew Zelenskyy won free elections with a result of 73%.
tass.com/politics/14091…
2. He replaced a non-Jewish incumbent who suffered, from a Jewish challenger, the worst defeat of a presidential candidate in Ukrainian history. Ukraine's united far right gained 2.15% in the 2019 parliamenrary elections.
3. Hundreds of Western "antifascist" journalists and even some scholars have helped Putin since 2014 with their alarmist statements warning about the surprisingly weak Ukrainian far right.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
1. Western politicians have not yet understood that they need to find adequate answers to an escalation of not only & not so much Russian traditional warfare, but also of Moscow's already intense hybrid war (economic, cyber, etc.) against #Ukraine, e.g.: researchgate.net/publication/29…
2. The Ukrainian state can collapse not only following a large Russian armed invasion, but also as a result of its continued subversion, destabilization & sabotage. Putin may choose the second option in order to avoid Western "monster sanctions" while achieving the same effects.
3. The repercussion for the EU of a Ukrainian collapse as a result of Russian hybrid warfare could be similar to those of an "ordinary" military offensive. The Kremlin primarily wants a destruction of rather than necessarily a war against a pro-Western Ukrainian state.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 18
My five kopecks on the current "correlation of forces" here in #Ukraine, building on @jhzachau's and my rough scenarios outline for the @SCEEUS_UI @UISweden below:
1. It is now increasingly likely that some kind of #Russian escalation will happen.
ui.se/forskning/cent…
2. This could, for instance, aim to bring the borders of the so-called "people's republics" in the #Donbas in line with their "constitutions" which claim that the entire #Donetsk and #Luhansk #oblasts belong to these pseudo-states.
3. Intensified shelling by the “republics” of government-controlled locations as well as an array of non-kinetic attacks on #Ukraine have already begun. kyivindependent.com/national/over-…
Read 10 tweets
Feb 13
1. Auch Risikoanalyse im ureigenen Interesse tut Not: Als offizieller #Nuklearwaffenstaat untergräbt #Russland|s offizielle Gebietserweiterung auf Kosten eines offiziellen #Nichtkernwaffenstaat|es die Logik des ratifizierten #Atomwaffensperrvertrag|s.
tagesspiegel.de/politik/konfli…
2. Moskaus #Krimannexion und Krieg gegen die #Ukraine sowie die weitgehend symbolische internationale Reaktion darauf kann andere Naionen künftig ermutigen, nicht so dumm wie die #nuklearwaffenfreien #Ukrainer und vielmehr so smart wie die #kernwaffenstarrenden #Russen zu sein.
3. Es könnten demnächst Millionen ukrainischer Flüchtlinge in die EU, ja womöglich nach Deutschland selbst strömen. Was genau tut Berlin bei Ankunft der zweiten, dritten... Million verzweifelter Menschen über die grüne EU-Ostgrenze? Mauer & Stacheldraht an der Oder-Neisse-Linie?
Read 6 tweets
Feb 12
1. A common Western misperception is that Ukrainians are unhappy about not getting enough direct help from the West.
euractiv.com/section/politi…
2. A far more salient desire here is that the West stops indirectly co-financing the Russian war against Ukraine via its intense trade, monetary and investment relations with Russia.
3. The Western talk about European values, international law, strong solidarity etc. appears as hollow, and the generous Western developmental help for Ukraine as ridiculous.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 26, 2021
1. Most #Ukrainian and #German experts interviewed for this investigation do not expect that a transit of power in Moscow will lead to an improvement of #Russia's relations to #Ukraine:
library.fes.de/pdf-files/buer…
@prismUA @EESRIorg @fes_russia @FESonline @FES_Europa @FESnewsbrief
2. While being a #German living in #Ukraine, I find myself, in contrast, in agreement with most #Russian experts who were polled in this #expertsurvey and who think that a change of leadership would have positive repercussions for Russian-#Ukrainian #relations.
@Konflikt_Sicher
3. Many thanks to #MarcelRöthig and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, and @MaksymKhylko of the Foreign Policy Council "#UkrainianPrism"​ for this excellent study!
library.fes.de/pdf-files/buer…
CC: @TerekMedia @NEC_Ukraine @ukraineoffice @UkrVerstehen @post_ukrainian @H__Ukraine @ACEurasia
Read 4 tweets

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