Why does #SWIFTban not support #Ukraine the way we want it to? #SWIFT is a messaging system. Would you ever send a friend a #WhatsApp before transferring money so she can make rent? That's what banks do to maintain balance sheets. Lots of money sloshing around out there.🧵
I don't argue against a #SWIFTban. The problem is, it's become a political symbol of #sanctions resolve when there are much more impactful things we can do to damage Russia. Full blocking sanctions on banks, SOEs and then secondary sanctions. Do that if you want to hit hard.
Taking #Russia off SWIFT will make it harder to send that #WhatsApp message, but there are alternatives, including a fax machine. We only took #Iran off of SWIFT after we embargoed the country, as a "nice to have." Economic warfare has a different tempo than real warfare. 👇
We cannot stop tanks with banks. We need to keep interest rates high, the #Ruble unstable, and #markets volatile. That could mean holding out longer on sanctions. Just as markets recover (investors buy low) and the Russians use their reserves to prop up the economy, we hit again.
#war is costly-- think of the untold childrens meals the US spent in Iraq, fighting an insurgency. Russia is and will face determined resistance #Ukraine, it will drain its own coffers on this terrible gamble of revisionist history.
Lastly, sanction the #Oligarchs. Finding their money will be hard, but if we try, we will find it. #PutinIsaWarCriminal. So are his accomplices. Their billions belong to the Russian people, not buying a #Yacht or a mansion or funding wars in #Ukraine, #Syria and #Africa.
Isn't it more important to focus on all that then financial #WhatsApp? Thoughts and corrections welcome. @AmbDanFried @brianoftoole @Levitt_Matt @JCZarate1 @greenwald00 @dantannNYC @RosenbergEliz @katecbauer @NeilBhatiya @KharonData @edwardfishman @reziemba @HagarChemali
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