CEO/Geschäftsführerin @ Atlantik-Brücke. Former NSC Europe, Treasury, Atlantic Council. Brooklyn and Berlin are home. If camping in the desert, bring a bicycle.
Mar 23, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
More #Russiasanctions do not necessarily increase the probability of #Peace, it could end up meaning the opposite. Many rightly point out that #oilandgas revenues dull the G7 block of Russian foreign exchange and have helped stabilize the #Ruble, at least for now. But...🧵
...we've never had sanctions like this and may be losing tabs on the strategy. Is a sovereign default a pre-requisite? Is there a bleed-rate on the #Ruble that equals a bleed-rate in the #war? We want to punish--understandably--but with what outcome?
Why does #SWIFTban not support #Ukraine the way we want it to? #SWIFT is a messaging system. Would you ever send a friend a #WhatsApp before transferring money so she can make rent? That's what banks do to maintain balance sheets. Lots of money sloshing around out there.🧵
I don't argue against a #SWIFTban. The problem is, it's become a political symbol of #sanctions resolve when there are much more impactful things we can do to damage Russia. Full blocking sanctions on banks, SOEs and then secondary sanctions. Do that if you want to hit hard.
Feb 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
To anyone believing that Western #sanctions have failed as a deterrent: don't mix timelines of a financial tool with that of a gun. Have some patience, today's sanctions will sap #Russia of its livelihood. You cannot sustain an occupation of a country without financing to back it
To anyone thinking the West looked weak today: have you ever seen so much damn consensus among allies? I would have dreamed of such agreement in 2014, although we'd never have dreamed we'd see it come to this. Resolve is a deterrent too. @AmbDanFried#UkraineRussiaConflict
Feb 2, 2022 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
How does the #Kremlin and the #Putin inner circle launder money? Short answer: just like the rest of us. #Russia uses the Western financial world as an element of its own power. But it's worth reviewing why this is before we cheer on the #sanctions brigade in the US and UK. A 🧵
Deep and internationalized #capital#markets are an element of Western power. By drawing global finance to #NewYork or #London, we make ourselves indispensable to global trade and investment. Use our #Dollar anywhere if you abide by its rules. This is why the yuan cannot compete.
