What is the endgame, the strategy of #victory, or to put it differently, the vision for #conflict #resolution in #Ukraine? What are feasible scenarios of future relations between #Russia and the #West? Some thoughts. Highly speculative and simplified.🧵1/9
2/9 Scenario 1: Putin wins militarily in Ukraine and achieves his political goals: regime change and demilitarization. Oppression in Russia increases. Western sanctions intensify, aiming at regime change in Russia. European division becomes permanent. foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
3/9 At the moment this scenario seems very much possible, unfortunately. The question is at what costs. Total destruction? Ukrainian statehood as we knew it will be lost but partisan warfare and sanctions over time may lead to an intra-elite coup in Russia as well (Scenario 3)
4/9 Scenario 2: Putin settles on a military stalemate that enables him to enforce negotiations. The Ukrainian government, in order to prevent further bloodshed, accepts some conditions, i.e. neutrality and loss of Eastern regions, in exchange for hard security guarantees.
5/9 If costs become too high, Putin may want to look for a way out. The question is whether Ukrainian society is able and willing to accept any form of negotiation outcome. Fundamental geostrategic conflict between Russia and the West remains, but stabilizes for the time being.
6/9 Scenario 3: Putin loses militarily in Ukraine and is forced to retreat with heavy causalities. Western sanctions further cripple his power. He is removed from office by an intra-elite coup whose leaders negotiate a ceasefire. Russian statehood as we knew it crumbles.
7/9 The last (unsuccessful) attempt of a palace revolution in Russia occurred in Aug. 1991 but failed due to a lack of both, decisiveness and public support. Make no mistake though: There is no good reason to expect the victory of liberal or democratic forces, only "restrainers".
8/9 Scenario 4: Putin is at the brink of losing militarily but unwilling to accept his fate, feeling existentially threatened. Likelihood of foreign engagement and inadvertent escalation increases, leading ultimately to a nuclear exchange, which causes multi-million casualties.
9/9 This may sound crazy, but, I am afraid, that's exactly were we could find ourselves. Probability may be low but it does exist. Inadvertent escalation, a NATO-Russia war, is a real possibility. We need to think it through & act accordingly to prevent it thebulletin.org/2022/02/the-pa…
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