Thread by @MariaRepnikova

In my first collaboration with talented @WendyZhou502 for @TheAtlantic we argue that #China primarily sees the #RussiaUkraine conflict through the prism of the #UnitedStates and more broadly of the #West. 1/11
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

We analyze #China's debates about #UkraineWar on #weibo, official statements and in selective media, and find that #ProRussia leaning is rooted in anti #Western sentiments. The key protagonist in many of these posts is not #Russia or #Ukraine, but #US and #NATO. 2/11

#NATO and the #US are portrayed as the source of the conflict, #Russia (and #Europe) as trapped by the #US, and #Ukraine as a powerless proxy of great power competition. 3/11

Some alternative voices presenting footage from #Ukraine and expressing empathy for #Ukraine exist, but are short-lived. The more assertive anti-US statements have a longer lifeline. 4/11

Targeting #US in #China's online and official discourse follows longer trajectory of contesting moral standing of the #US. A common rhetorical technique is the use of "double standards." You waged wars and aren't held accountable but you blame others for defending themselves.5/11

"A viral video posted by a stand-up-comedy account mocked Western countries for swiftly implementing sanctions on Russian art, sports teams, and even cats, in contrast to their subdued reactions to an array of U.S.-led attacks and conflicts..." 6/11

"The conflict in Ukraine is not the only thing China views through the prism of its rivalry with Washington. It sees the lessons it must learn from the crisis through a similar lens." 7/11

The key lesson might be more self-sufficiency and less reliance on the #West. We already see this in the intense focus on #domestic economy at #NPC. In mainstream media, #Ukraine news is under-reported in contrast to #domestic economic governance. 8/11

There are also reflections on #Russia #sanctions and how #China can take more pre-emptive measures (i.e. reducing reliance on SWIFT) to avoid similar outcomes. #Soviet collapse remains an anti-model for #Xi. #RussiaUkraineWar may also turn into a cautionary tale. 9/11

In a recent poll posted on Weibo asking how #China should manage its relations with #Russia, most respondents voted for supporting it, but "the most upvoted comments argued, that ultimately, China should focus on itself and on countering the U.S. in the long run." 10/11

#RussiaChina collusion narrative is attractive, but #China's gaze is more firmly set on competing with #US. It will align with #Russia when convenient, but always prioritize its own interests. Will #China rescue #Russia economically? Not if it means facing its own losses. 11/11

We already see this in