Thread by @Diplomacy_Peace

🔴 LIVE: Our panel on 🇨🇳 #China's role in the #Russia-#Ukraine war + implications for #Taiwan is now underway. Sr. Fellow Jeremy Paltiel @cu_polisci on the current crisis: "The Chinese position has been to remain even-handed, with a tilt—not a lean—towards #Russia." 1/x 🧵

Jeremy Paltiel @cu_polisci: "It's an awkward moment because the five principles of peaceful co-existence... those have been a cornerstone of #Chinese diplomacy basically since its founding and towards the Global South... equivocation on basic principles may have some cost." 2/x

On Sino-Russian military cooperation, @lylegoldstein @defpriorities says China's armed forces have "very critical Russian roots in every respect" that continue today. "I would not be shocked if help [on #Ukraine] would be forthcoming" to get a foot in the Russian arms market. 3/x

On 🇨🇳 mediation, @lylegoldstein @defpriorities suggested "there is almost no other country in the world that has this interesting ability" to influence the Kremlin. He added that China "does not want to see its long-term partner fail... #Russia is too important to fail." 4/x

Given Soviet history, @DavidCurtWright @cmsscalgary says "this new comity between #China and #Russia is interesting... but I'm not sure how long it's going to last." If 🇨🇳 mediates successfully, "China will emerge as a major diplomatic power" and it would be in its interest." 5/x

On the potential of 🇨🇳 as a peacemaker, @lylegoldstein @defpriorities says it's "quite unlikely that it could pull this off" and "being a mediator would require it to complicate its relationship with 🇷🇺 #Russia" but that Asian peacekeepers would be ideal in this context. 6/x

In his estimate, @lylegoldstein added that it's more likely for #China to quietly support #Russia that "could involve more complex military equipment," particularly drones, especially given Moscow's recognition of Beijing's vast domestic military-industrial complex. 7/x

Jeremy Paltiel @cu_polisci noted that, comparatively, #Israel's meditation has been poorly covered and that they "floundered" due to the sticking point of an "immediate ceasefire." On this, he says 🇨🇳 has more leverage to pressure Putin, but it doesn't appear ready to do so. 8/x

Paltiel went on to say #China 🇨🇳 "would have to make a strategic calculation to actually offend Putin if necessary and use sticks on Putin for carrots later" to achieve effective mediation and halt hostilities in #Ukraine 🇺🇦. 9/x

If Moscow meets its objectives in 🇺🇦 #Ukraine, @DavidCurtWright @cmsscalgary says that "China would be loathe" to be a party to the country's dismbemberment. The main question to answer in the context of mediation is "under what circumstances #Russia would stop attacking." 10/x

Paltiel @cu_polisci says that active Ukrainian resistance and material Western support makes it "less likely" for #China to trigger a contingency over #Taiwan, where its preference remains the non-employment of force to achieve its aims. 11/x

On #Taiwan, @lylegoldstein @defpriorities says Beijing "might re-examine its assumptions" over a military campaign, but would still be "substantially more successful" than #Russia. He added that Tsai Ing-wen should not repeat Zelenskyy's mistake and reopen dialogue w/ 🇨🇳. 12/x

On US-TW relations, @lylegoldstein went on to say that the West should avoid "bad friend syndrome" and guarantee commitments that will not have follow-through or risk escalation as has been demonstrated in 🇺🇦 #Ukraine. 13/x

Jeremy Paltiel @cu_polisci summed up the panel by noting that "this war [in #Ukraine] will not end without some kind of consideration for #Russia's strategic interest" just as will be the case between Taipei and Beijing. 14/x

/END. That's a wrap to our 🧵 and discussion on 🇺🇦 #Ukraine, #Russia, 🇨🇳 #China + #Taiwan ft. @lylegoldstein @defpriorities, @DavidCurtWright @cmsscalgary, Jeremy Paltiel @cu_polisci + @WenranJ.

▶️ Watch and listen to the full recording here: