Thread by @Diplomacy_Peace

🔴 LIVE: Our panel on the 🇮🇷 #Iran talks in the aftermath of its pause over demands from 🇷🇺 #Russia is now underway. Nasser Hadian @UnivOfTehran is optimistic about a return to #JCPOA because "the plan Bs are so horrible that nobody wants to go down that path." 1/x 🧵

On remaining hurdles, @SanamVakil @ch_menap says "there are differences still on the lifting of #sanctions, particularly those over the FTO designation of the IRGC" and the fact that "everyone would like guarantees," not just 🇷🇺 #Russia. 2/x

On the talks' fate, @MarkTFitz @IISS_org gauged that all parties "are serious about reaching a deal," noting that "#Russia very quickly backtracked due to Iranian diplomacy and American diplomacy" to guarantee trade cooperation b/w Moscow and Tehran amidst events in #Ukraine. 3/x

On #Russian demands, @AliVaez @CrisisGroup said they were a "tactical gambit" by Moscow to punch holes in the #sanctions regime, but that negotiations have reached a point where they are "too big to fail" but conceded there is still room for miscalculation. 4/x

Nasser Hadian @UnivOfTehran emphasized the importance of the IRGC to Tehran's calculus amid its terrorist designation, saying "they need to respond to the radicals and reformists" and that "there are going to be many people who are going to be critical" if it's not lifted. 5/x

@AliVaez @CrisisGroup: "A lot of people" in Washington consider a renewed JCPOA "worse than the Obama deal." He also noted that designations had failed to "temper the behaviour" of the IRGC and had faced some opposition within the Beltway before they were imposed. 6/x

On the IRGC, @MarkTFitz @IISS_org: President Biden "will have to lift the FTO designation but he'll need something in exchange for it," noting the possibility of Tehran's release of five American dual nationals, if there is to be a final resolution to the #JCPOA. 7/x

On the #Iran-#Saudi talks' effect, @SanamVakil @ch_menap said "there is a structural imbalance between Tehran and Riyadh that requires a broader conversation" that has to be "sequenced once the #JCPOA is formalized and rehabilitated," adding that many states are hedging. 🇸🇦🇮🇷 8/x

On Moscow, Hadian @UnivOfTehran said 🇷🇺 is "too important" to be ignored and that Tehran "will do its best to bring #Russia onboard" vis-à-vis Washington. He also argued that guarantees are crucial for sustainability, especially those that shield economic engagement with 🇮🇷. 9/x

On increasing the durability of a deal, @AliVaez @CrisisGroup said that "if we want an agreement that is more difficult to withdraw from, that is not the #JCPOA" but rather a follow-up deal—"both sides are arguing they need more." 10/x

Echoing Vaez, @MarkTFitz @IISS_org says "this is a deal of mutual pain" in either side withdraws, adding that a future Republican White House will have the ability to walk away regardless, even if it's a decision not based on a cost-benefit calculation. 11/x

@SanamVakil @ch_menap argued that ultimately "a cooperative security framework that would allow regional states to manage tensions among themselves" is necessary when viewing the JCPOA in a broader context and that external efforts should be made to support this. 12/x

On sentiment on Capitol Hill, @AliVaez @CrisisGroup: "The only amount of sanctions relief that is accepted by most policymakers here is zero, so from their perspective, the administration has already gone too far." 13/x

@SanamVakil @ch_menap says the fallout from the Erbil attack make removal of an FTO designation "very difficult" and may attract "significant pushback," particularly in #Europe and given concerns expressed by #Israel. 14/x

On the effect of JCPOA's restoration on 🇮🇷's ties with #China, Nasser Hadian @UnivOfTehran said that "certainly we'll be getting closer to the East, but the question" being debated in Tehran is "to what extent" Iran will be in Beijing's orbit. 15/15

🧵/END. That's a wrap to our panel on the state of the 🇮🇷 #Iran talks + the 🇷🇺 #Russia factor amid #Ukraine w/ @SanamVakil @ch_menap, @MarkTFitz @IISS_org, @AliVaez @CrisisGroup, Nasser Hadian @UnivOfTehran + @AhmadiBijanFA.

▶️ Watch + listen here: