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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
@SamuelJsdv
Mar 25, 2022 • 10 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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🚨🇺🇦🇷🇺 #UkraineRussiaWar could spillover into other areas: hot-spots are #Ganja #Zangezur #Lachin in #Azerbaijan & #Armenia 🇦🇿🇦🇲. Caucasus is critical for 🇪🇺🇹🇷 to circumvent Russia 🇷🇺 while still trading with Asia. However 🇷🇺has troops there since 2020 ceasefire.

Thread [9]🧵⬇️
#Russia🇷🇺 is run by an increasingly paranoid & violent leader. As Moscow is cut-off from the international system due to sanctions, it is rapidly losing its strategic role as a transit country between Asia & Europe in China’s🇨🇳multi-billion #BeltRoadInitiative (in-land) . . .
A million containers, previously rail-transported via Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 & Russia 🇷🇺, have to find alternative routes to reach🇪🇺markets. Hundreds of thousands of trucks are also deviating southwards (#MiddleCorridor) with increased traffic/queues reported on🇷🇺🇬🇪&🇷🇺🇦🇿&🇹🇷🇧🇬borders . . .
The #MiddleCorridor links Asia with 🇪🇺 EU’s 🛃 CustomsZone (which includes 🇹🇷) through #CentralAsia and #Azerbaijan or #Iran. This corridor is a competitive alternative to #Russia for both existing & newly 🇪🇺🇦🇿 signed gas supply. Same for bulk/commodity, cargo & ‘fast delivery’.
The technical-logistical challenges are complex. They range from road tariff quotas in transit countries and insurance levels to available infrastructure, corruption & slow border crossings to capacity levels, ferry pricing and other transit logistical issues . . .
The geopolitical challenges are also complex & the risk of re-escalation in S. Caucasus is growing. The inevitable increase in energy & logistical transport across #MiddleCorridor (due to #UkraineRussiaWar) puts 🇹🇷 in a growing position of strength & realignment with West. . .
This new reality puts 🇹🇷 and 🇷🇺 back on their inevitable historical-rival-trajectory, competing over strategic geography and trade and competing control over East-West and North-South corridors. Depending on how Iran positions itself on Russia, it also shifts 🇹🇷🇮🇷 relations . . .
Many unanswered questions remain on this subject: will 🇹🇷 leadership take more Turkish-state or “individualised” choices vis-a-vis Russia? Has ☢️🇷🇺Akkayu, 🇷🇺BlueStream, 🇷🇺TurkStream & S-400s made 🇹🇷 too dependent on 🇷🇺, or does Ankara still have sovereign/independent choice? . .
About #MiddleCorridor: #Russia’s inhumane actions in #Ukraine has pushed trade and energy southwards to the benefit of 🇪🇺🇹🇷. In turn, Russia puts pressure on its vulnerable neighbours, like #Georgia, #Azerbaijan & #Armenia. 🇷🇺 uses same neo-colonial attitude in #CentralAsia . . .
Russian troops are stationed inside disputed territories between Azerbaijan and Armenia as Trilateral “peacekeepers”. They just happen to be located within a very short radius of the narrowest part of the #MiddleCorrdor where energy and goods flow from Asia to Europe 🚨💣 [END]

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More from @SamuelJsdv

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Apr 24
Everyone (including myself) is disappointed about last week's #EU 🇪🇺 Council #EUCO #Türkiye 🇹🇷 conclusions.

5️⃣-point 'real(ity)-politik-check'

🧵⤵️


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1️⃣ Last week's #EUCO demonstrates a perfect case of the 🇪🇺 #EU reaching the lowest common denominator.

The statement (See image) recycles previous #EUCO wording and @JosepBorrellF's Joint-Communication 🇹🇷 from 2023. Its generic, reversible and dependent on #Cyprus 🇨🇾🇪🇺, which means its close-to-a-dead-end.

This has been described eloquently by longtime experts @NathalieTocci, @narisan61, @sinanulgen1 and others.

. . . (Continued)Image
2️⃣ Yet despite the "disappointing #EUCO results" two conclusions can be drawn:

First, the 🇪🇺🇹🇷 #EU-#Türkiye relationship seems too geo-politically-complex for the 🇪🇺 #EU to handle. The 🇪🇺 #EU doesnt have authority over core areas that are of utmost importance for key #EU Member States in dealing with 🇹🇷 #Türkiye like intelligence, defence and signifcant military-security fields linked to the #Caucasus, #Sahel, #Syria 🇸🇾, #Libya 🇱🇾 and other geo-strategic policies.

Second, a series of more quiet cross-country negotiations between #Türkiye 🇹🇷, #France 🇫🇷🇪🇺, #Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺, #Cyprus 🇨🇾🇪🇺 and #Greece 🇬🇷🇪🇺 amongst others will likely gain more importance.

(Continued) . . .Image
Read 6 tweets
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Apr 1
Yesterday #Türkiye 🇹🇷 witnessed a #CHP-opposition landslide in local elections.

But with a general election 4 years away, what does it mean?

5️⃣ socio-analytical points ⤵️


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1️⃣ The results are historical.

The last time CHP (opposition) won nationwide was in 1977. With 90+% of the vote counted this morning it is certain that all major cities/metropolitan municipalities of #Turkiye 🇹🇷 have re-appointed CHP or switched away from AKP, including: Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Izmir, Adana, Antalya, Balıkesir, Manisa, Kütahya, Adıyaman, Amasya, Kırıkkale and Denizli.

CHP won 35 of Turkey's 81 provincial capitals. This is how all political parties performed nation-wide:¹

CHP  37.74% (Won 7.93%)
AKP 35.49%. (Lost 7%)
YRP 6.19% (Won 6.19%)
DEM 5.68% (Won 1.16%)
MHP 4.98% (Loss 2.46%)
IYI 3.77% (Loss 3.99%)

In practice, the government (Erdoğan's party and his ultra-nationalist alliance MHP) faced a big loss, while the other more pro-opposition nationalist party (IYI) also performed poorly while Aksener has stepped down. Same thing applies for the hardline anti-migration party Zafer Party. The real winners were the opposition, with CHP and Ekrem İmamoğlu in first place, followed by a small growth for Kurdish-ex-HDP party now known as DEM. The fastest - and very important - electoral rise came from ex-Refah party which is now known as the New Welfare Party (YRP). This party is run by the son of Necmettin Erbakhan, a much loved/hated² #Turkiye 🇹🇷 Prime Minister of the 1990s. YPR is a blend of very hardline religious views (e.g. close to anti-secular), ultra-nationalism (e.g. #Turkiye First Protectionism) and vehement anti-Israel 🇮🇱 views.

(Continued . . .)Image
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2️⃣ Municipal budget impact.

The landslide win for CHP at municipal levels across the country first and foremost means a significant increase in available funds for the opposition.

Out of the overall national tax collection, 2.85% goes to non-metropolitan municipalities, whereas 2.5% goes to district municipalities in metropolitan areas, 1.15% goes to special provincial administrations.

Metropolitan municipalities receive 5% of the taxes collected in their territory as well as 30% of the subsidies received by their district municipalities.³

In numbers: the budgets of #Istanbul Municipality is larger than some national Turkish ministries at €15.3 billion euros (516 billion Turkish Lira). #Ankara is in second biggest with a budget of €2.63 billion euro (92 billion Turkish Lira), while other major cities are within the multi-billion range, including #Antalya at €457 million euro (16 billion Turkish Lira).

An opposition victory of this calibre has a structural impact on funds, as described above. This will likely foster new dependencies, which can (grossly) be summarised as more money and campaign-capacity to CHP ahead of any future elections.

As a result, it is realistic to expect some disputes concerning how national and local funds are allocation/disbursed.

(Continued . . .)Image
Read 7 tweets
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Jan 27
On this Monday (29th) and Tuesday (30th) the #GlobalGateway 💶🌐#InvestorForum is held in Brussels with signing of new partnerships & major funds for #EU-#CentralAsia 🇪🇺🇰🇿🇰🇬🇹🇯🇹🇲🇺🇿 ⤵️

🔹Geo-Economics?
🔹Why Central Asia?
🔹What Projects?
🔹What To Expect from Forum?

Full Article (20-thread) 🧵⤵️Image
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1⃣Introduction ⤵️

China’s 🇨🇳Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has long been viewed as an important source of investment and international connectivity.

Despite providing huge sums of money to willing-partner countries around the world, BRI now faces a string of undesirable consequences ranging from local discontent (e.g. pollution, land possession, and protests) to issues like low labor standards, debt, and non-inclusive growth.

To date, the most comprehensive and granular study of 13,427 Chinese development projects indicates widespread and unsustainable debt trends (e.g. 10% debt rates) at a time in which Beijing 🇨🇳is facing economic uncertainty.

. . .Image
2⃣ In parallel to the BRI story, the European Union (EU) 🇪🇺 has been rolling out its largest-ever foreign investment and infrastructure initiative, known as the Global Gateway🌐💶.

In typical #EU 🇪🇺fashion, this went more or less unnoticed, despite it being worth €300 billion, or the equivalent of #Portugal’s 🇵🇹entire annual Gross Domestic Product.

Since its inception in 2021-2022, #GlobalGateway has focused primarily on infrastructure, connectivity, and investments. It distinguishes itself from BRI by rooting all its funding in strict accountability, debt #sustainability, inclusive #growth, and #green transition.

In addition, it is legally tied to improved labor conditions, tech transfer, and fostering regional integration (e.g. ASEAN, CA), while constructing renewable and independent sources of energy. These concepts aim to give countries more autonomy, improved ownership, stability, and growth based on the #UN’s 🇺🇳 Sustainable Development Goals.

. . .Image
Read 19 tweets
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Jul 2, 2023
‘#Turkey/#Türkiye 🇹🇷 in the New European Security Architecture’ is part of @EurLiberalForum’s annual security handbook.

🔟-point 🇪🇺🇹🇷 summary🧵below👇⤵️

*This publication is part of @ALDEParty’s think-tank which provides advise to 🇪🇺 liberal parties & politicians:… https://t.co/4vMFPpjUI2twitter.com/i/web/status/1…




1️⃣ Context: #EU & #Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 are extremely inter-dependent on one another (e.g. FDI, trade, supply-chains, CU, migration, corridor to Asia, energy transit, renewable needs, technology etc.). This is both well-documented and unavoidable in part due to the 1995/1996 Customs… https://t.co/1CfYHc3yjstwitter.com/i/web/status/1…


2️⃣ Theory: The ‘Weaponisation concept’ popularised by @markhleonard & @MarkGaleotti says that the 1990s-2000s tied the world together through globalisation and made everyone dependent on each other: institutions, finance, technology and many more sectors became internationally… https://t.co/pvlA9c6Vlltwitter.com/i/web/status/1…


Read 12 tweets
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Jan 28, 2023
Why are #Azerbaijan #Iran 🇦🇿🇮🇷 relations so bad?

Five 5️⃣ simple facts 🧵 (below) help explain why the 🇦🇿🇮🇷 Azeri-Iranian relationship has deteriorated and what’s really behind the recent attack against 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran ⤵️ . . .
1️⃣ #Sociologically: Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 & Iran 🇮🇷 are very different societies. Iran’s regime has a hardline, old and extreme interpretation of Shia-religion, while Azerbaijan has a more modern interpretation (gender parity, customs etc). It lay at the root of many differences . . .
2️⃣ #Historically: Iran (& Russia) colonised Azeri and South Caucasian people, while today large Azeri communities continue to live inside of Iran, many of which have strong linguistic and cultural bonds to Azerbaijan and do not accept Tehran’s radical governance-style . . .
Read 11 tweets
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Nov 17, 2022
“The Ottomans’ relationship with the Crimean Khans is fascinating” (Quataert, 2005, Ottoman Empire 1700-1922) ⤵️

Why does #Turkey 🇹🇷 defend #Ukraine 🇺🇦 ? Why does Turkey reject #Russia’s 🇷🇺 occupation of #Crimea?

[6-point historical thread 📚🧵] ⤵️
1️⃣ Crimean Khans are “. . . descendants of the Golden Horde (Mongols of Lake Baykal) and vassals of the Ottoman sultans from 1475 until 1774, when that tie was (temporarily) severed as a prelude to their annexation and occupation by 🇷🇺 Czarist state in 1783” . . .
2️⃣ The maternal grandfather of Sultan Süleyman I (Magnificent) is believed to have been Chrimean Mengili I Giray. This helps explain why 16th Century Ottomans allowed for the Khan of Crimean Tatars to potentially succeed an Ottoman dynasty in case of no male heir . . .
Read 9 tweets

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