Dave Keating Profile picture
Mar 25 4 tweets 2 min read
Conclusions on #Ukraine after Day 1, the 27 #EUCO PMs & presidents.

"The European Council calls on all countries to align with those sanctions. Any attempts to circumvent sanctions or to aid Russia by other means must be stopped"
consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
The big question is whether EU leaders will today ban imports of Russian oil & coal. This morning presidents Biden & VDL will announce LNG deal designed to make that easier.

“Everybody wants it but it’s nothing that you can do in the short term" said 🇳🇱Dutch PM Rutte last night.
“Measures on energy right now would have a huge impact on our economies" said 🇧🇪Belgian PM. “The basic rule is that sanctions must have a much greater impact on the Russian side than on the European side. We don't wage war on ourselves"

Could phasing in the ban allay concerns?
What's on the table today for 🇪🇺 #RussiaSanctions:

🛢️A phased-in EU import ban on Russian oil & coal (possible, but still unlikely at this stage)

What's not on the table today:

🔥An EU import ban on Russian gas, or any immediate import ban.

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More from @DaveKeating

Mar 25
Presidents @JoeBiden & @VonDerLeyen have just announced a deal that will see 🇺🇸 deliver an additional 15 billion cubic metres of liquified natural gas (#LNG) this year to 🇪🇺.

It's designed to give #EUCO leaders the confidence today to ban Russian energy imports.
But #Biden acknowledges the problem: Europe has few #LNG port facilities to receive the liquified gas, and they're already operating at capacity. He says US will help build new LNG infrastructure.

Longer term, 🇺🇸 will deliver at least 50bn cm per year to 🇪🇺 from now to 2030.
The amount of extra 🇺🇸#LNG deliveries by ship this year promised by #Biden amounts to 10% of the 155 bcm of gas 🇪🇺 imports from Russia each year via pipeline.

EU will "build more infrastructure to receive LNG and to take steps to increase the efficiency of gas" Biden says.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 25
#EUCO will today see Latin-Germanic clash on energy prices. It's very technical but here's an explainer I wrote for @EnergyMonitorAI.

Electricity prices are tied to gas, and they're going through the roof. 🇪🇸Sanchez wants to change that. 🇩🇪🇳🇱 say no.
energymonitor.ai/sectors/power/…
The disagreement on energy prices could blow up #EUCO today. 🇪🇸Sanchez is threatening to veto #EUCO conclusions if there's no price changes.

Team Sanchez (🇮🇹🇵🇹🇬🇷🇧🇪) say urgent relief is needed.

🇩🇪🇳🇱 say intervention is not a silver bullet & caps risk suppliers ending contracts
🇩🇪🇳🇱 also point out market intervention setting energy prices is a double-edged sword.

You could set a price that's lower than market rate now, only to see the market rate fall in a few months and end up with Europeans paying more than the market rate. Long-term consequences.
Read 28 tweets
Mar 24
🇺🇸US President Joe Biden speaking at #NATO HQ now.

He says it’s understandable that NATO allies are concerned. “The US has committed to provide $2 billion to Ukraine since I became president…our weapons are flowing into 🇺🇦 as we speak” Image
#Biden says it was clear in his call with #Putin a month ago that the Russian leader didn’t expect the West to stay so United.

He praises America’s #NATO and #EU partners for their robust response. Image
On #China, #Biden says he believes Xi understands his country’s future will be better cooperating with the West than in being tied to Russia.

Very similar line to what Macron, Scholz & Draghi said earlier.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 24
Now that Macron has finished, @BorisJohnson takes to the podium (🇫🇷🇬🇧 flags quickly swapped)

“I’ve rarely seen nations more United in recent years than we are now,” the prime minister says.
"We continue to see huge numbers of Ukrainians fleeing their homes," says Johnson after #NATO & #G7 summits.

But he makes no announcement of taking in more refugees as #Biden has just done.
Johnson asked if UK can grant #Zelensky's request today for tanks and jets.

"We’re looking at what we can do to help but logistically at the moment it looks very difficult both with armour and with jets. The equipment we think is more immediately valuable is missiles".
Read 5 tweets
Mar 24
#Macron following #G7:

#NATO has made a choice to support #Ukraine in this war without going to war with #Russia

France and other NATO allies will continue arming Ukraine. “We want this to be efficient but we do not want to be cobelligérant”
#Macron shows a chart showing France’s contribution to securing #NATO’s eastern frontier.

He says this will be coordinated by EU, as part of NATO efforts, not in competition with it.
🇫🇷Macron says he (and 🇩🇪🇮🇹) pressed #G7 partners 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇯🇵🇨🇦 to "show solidarity in the management of #UkraineRefugees".

"For reasons of geography Europe of course is the first destination." 3.5 million have come to EU. Other 4 in G7 not taking refugees without hard-to-get visas.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 24
Delay at #NATO means we're probably not getting press conferences from #G7 leaders today.

They'll need to go directly from here to 🇪🇺#EUCO summit & Biden is going to snarl traffic (also impacts leaders apparently).

But Johnson isn't going so he could do a presser all afternoon.
Anyway we’re waiting patiently in the 🇫🇷French briefing room in case @EmmanuelMacron has time for a press conference in between #G7 and 🇪🇺#EUCO.

Today is nuts.
#G7 meeting still ongoing here at #NATO HQ, even though 🇪🇺#EUCO summit on other side of town was supposed to start now.

4 of G7 (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇺🇸) need to go there

Think it's unlikely we'll get a Macron presser. Johnson will probably use this room. Hope they remember to change the flag
Read 4 tweets

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