A Russian defeat can be more disastrous than a Ukrainian surrender.
Russians have nuclear weapons and an egoistic president suffering from a #narcissistic personality disorder.
May God help us all!
Nuclear or Chemical Weapons exchange will destroy the global environment
#climate
There is literature available on how nuclear war can instigate a nuclear winter.
That means the #sunlight will not be able to permeate the agricultural ecosystem, most crops won't grow in darkness and cold weather and that will lead to global food production disruption and famine
Previously, Western Experts had studied the possibility of nuclear winter in the context of South Asia, where nuclear arch-rivals India and Pakistan have maintained unconventional weapon arsenals for a long time.
Never thought this geostrategic risk could emanate from Eurasia?
#Russia with, 6500 nuclear warheads/weapons and accompanied delivery systems, has $400 bio plus worth of its forex reserves impounded, coupled with demand destruction witnessed across its economy, closing of MNC shops, and lots more, will not do anything if it loses the war?
The Game Theory Experts have once in a lifetime to predict whether Putin will or will not use the nuclear/ CBW button?
#Nash
Must understand the wounded Russian Mindset.
They lost the Cold War and later were humiliated by joker #Yeltsin, who was a western puppet.
I am not a #Russian Apologist, but, the fact remains that Bear's #psychology is not perfectly properly studied by the #geostrategic experts.

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More from @SAH16928046

Mar 27
An Economics/Finance PhD is still probably one of the few degrees that provides you with an opportunity to start a career in either academia or elsewhere in the corporate sector, preferably Finance or the Govt Sectors.
But, always try to gain some practical experiences after BS
I don't like this concept of pushing students after undergrad level directly into a PhD program.
Especially, if the student has an opportunity to learn some practical skills in the real world.
Economics is that sort of profession, where many jump using the 3+1 research route.
I mean, what is the point of blindly doing a doctorate when you cannot operate basic IT Systems & Computing Packages that will help you work as an economist at banks, funds, etc
Attending colloquiums, seminars and conferences, co-authoring n publishing papers, etc won't help.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 26
Different professions require distinct applied skill sets
1. Working as a #quality systems controller in the dairy industry, a degree in total quality management will not suffice alone!
You need to have some awards in veterinary sciences & nutrition sciences or food science/tech
2. Working in the Insurance Industry with just a degree in Actuarial Sciences cannot help per se.
The Actuarial Risk Aspirants must develop an understanding of #Insurance Underwriting Methods, Insurance Business Models, Insurance Law & Accounting, in addition to Maths and Stats.
3. The same holds true for those who graduate with qualifications in Financial Engineering or FINTECH, etc.
Students must develop an understanding of financial products, laws, exchanges, etc
Blindly applying quantitative models to events or observable data won't take you anywhere
Read 18 tweets
Mar 25
Read below
Horrible to see the degeneration of #Malaysia, a once upon rising star among #NICs and Emerging Market Economies, which served as a justified model and example of equitable development and growth, now, sadly, falling under the list of nations that are rotten to the core.
#1MDB
This turmoil started after DR Mahathir left power.
Since Dr Abdullah Badawi took over the reins of political power, Malaysia, as a country, has remained in a state of pendency.
All good work done in the 80s down the gutter due to bickering among UMNO and corrupt Najib n Rosmah Co
Read 4 tweets
Mar 24
Do credit #underwriters, at banks, actually read the credit memo and the financial risk/credit scorecard attached and prepared by the analysts with the credit proposal?
In some jurisdictions the Head Office, Credit Committee Members don't even give a damn about the due diligence
#Bankers should not keep the Credit Manual for the Auditor's pleasure.

I don't want to expand on this one more.
And with the implementation of the @BIS_org Accords over the years, bankers have still not updated their manuals, policies, strategies, etc
Some bankers, especially credit back office, RMs, and Middle Office Risk Analysts still don't factor in credit risk metrics as required.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 17
Before wars begin and end, the country strategists must invest in proper risk analysis and intelligence.
Country Risk Analysis is not just about surveying Banker's Almanac or doing lousy ratio analysis and setting risk limits to counterparty exposures, jurisdictions, desks, etc.
Very few financial institutions and especially banks hire country risk analysts.
Most of the work is done by credit underwriting and back-office analysts with some input taken from Compliance, and Risk Management Desks.
Credit Manuals talk little about International banking.
Global Banks should hire Political Science, International Political Economy Experts, and related subject area professionals, who can provide qualitative input that is needed for risk assessment.
ECL/Default Risk is not just LGD X PD X EAD.
@BIS_org must provide more guidance.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 14
#SBER Bank of #Russia was at least a giant on paper before the war began.
The downfall of this bank alone can bring down the Russian Economy.
Russia, irrespective of whatever comes out of the war, will suffer immensely.
But, such a nation, with precious resources, be closed down?
At least $300 bio plus reserves of Russia are frozen/impounded by foreign financial firms and government authorities due to sanctions.
What will be the consequences of this for other economies such as GCC Sheikdoms and Chinese that invest big time in overseas sovereign paper,etc?
For e.g. KSA earns around $1 Billion roughly every day from the export of oil.
A lot of that money is invested in overseas financial markets.
Other sovereign wealth funds in the GCC also invest petrodollars in large amounts across the world.
This impounding of reserves is a novel
Read 9 tweets

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