Ted Darling Profile picture
Mar 27 โ€ข 21 tweets โ€ข 9 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 03/27/22

1/8

Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ can ๐Ÿ‘€

Commodities โ†—๏ธ

Yields โ†—๏ธ

Equities โ†—๏ธ

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/8

The ๐Ÿ”‘ to โ†˜๏ธ prices is โ†—๏ธ prices?

Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 ๐Ÿ”
2a/8

Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week ๐Ÿš€
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months

$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) โฌ…๏ธ
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)

Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
2b/8

Grains were also โ†—๏ธ on the week

$CORN +1.65% (w) +24.45% (T)
$SOYB +2.55% (w) +27.5% (T)
$SUGAR +3.6% (w) +2.14% (T) ๐Ÿ†• โ™‰๏ธ
$WHEAT +4.55% (w) +34.1% (T)

Chart: $SUGAR +9.0% over (t) = trade duration = 1 month and now โ™‰๏ธ Trend
2c/8

But not everything is โ™‰๏ธ in the ag space

I will take my โ˜•๏ธ black, please

Chart: $COFFEE +0.9% (w), -7.1% (t), -3.95% (T), but is that a ๐Ÿ˜„ I see?
2d/8

Metals were more of a โ†”๏ธ ๐Ÿ’ผ this week

$PLAT -2.65% (w) +3.45% (T)
$COPPER -0.85% (w) +7.05% (T)
$GOLD +1.3% (w) +7.85% (T)
$SILVER +2.07% (w) +11.65% (T)

Chart: $DBB +5.8% (w) industrial metals remain bid โ†—๏ธ +17.25% (T) but on weakening volume
2e/8

And, of course, we have to mention $LUMBER which has broken bad - not surprising given the ๐Ÿš€ in rates and the effect on housing.

Chart: $LUMBER -17.05% (t), -16.5% (T)
3/8

10Y treasury yields around ๐ŸŒ ๐Ÿ’ฅ โ†—๏ธ

This is not normally indicative of growth slowingโ€ฆ but it could just be the markets doing CBs jobs as investors demand +yield given sticky #inflation

Chart: UST 10Y 2.48% ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
3a/8

Chart: DET 10Y .59% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
3b/11

Chart: JPT10Y 0.23% ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
3c/8

UST volatility remains ๐Ÿ›—

Chart: MOVE 125.27 ๐Ÿ˜ฑ
3d/8

The belly of the curve is threatening the long-end with #inversion raising the specter ๐Ÿ‘€ of #recession 12-18 months hence

5Y 2.561% +41.5 BPS this week alone ๐Ÿ˜ฎ
30Y 2.602% +18.1 BPS

Chart: 30/5s 4.1 BPS dropped 23.5 BPS this week, a massive move โ†˜๏ธ
4/8

Bond ETFs and 60/40 portfolios have been ๐Ÿ’ฅ

$TLT -3.6% (w) -13.35% (T)
$IEF -2.75% (w) -8.0% (T)
$LQD -2.1% (w) -10.1% (T)
$HYG -1.45% (w) -6.7% (T)
$BNDD -0.65% (w) - 4.63% (T)
$CWB +0.75% (w) -8.1% (T) โฌ…๏ธ

Chart: $LQD -4.45% this month alone
5/8

Turning to equities โ€ฆ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

$SPX +1.8% (w) - 3.85% (T)
$COMPQ +2.0% (w) - 9.5% (T)
$IWM +1.4% (w) - 7.15% (T)

โ€ฆ as vol โ†˜๏ธ

$VIX 20.81 -3.06 pts
$VXN 27.34 -0.42 pts
$RVX 26.77 -3.0 pts

Chart: $COMPQ +3.45% (t), but still ๐Ÿป (T)
5a/8

US Sectors

Alpha generators
$XLE +6.6% (w) + 43.45% (T)
$XLB +3.7% (w) +1.1% (T)
$XLU +2.8% (w) +5.9% (T)

Hurting returns long side
$XLV -0.55% (w) - 2.2% (T)
$XLRE -0.2% (w) - 5.6% (T)
$XLY +0.8% (w) - 9.75% (T)

Chart: $XLU +7.7% (t) is getting you ๐Ÿ’ฐ this month
5b/8

Get some!

Chart: $SPYV +1.3% - large cap value has flipped to โ™‰๏ธ (t) +2.55% and (T) +1.45%.
5c/8

Short some! ๐Ÿฉณ

Chart: A #quad4 long, $XHB ๐Ÿ  -8.8% (w) -5.35% (t) -6.4% (T) is getting decimated by โ†—๏ธ mortgage rates with 30-year fixed at 4.54%
6/8

Internatโ€™l indices more of a โ†”๏ธ ๐Ÿ’ผ

$NIKK +4.95% (w) - 2.2% (T)
$KOSPI +0.85% (w) - 8.95% (T)
$HSI -0.05% (w) - 7.7% (T)
$DAX -0.75% (w) - 9.2% (T)
$CAC -1.0% (w) - 7.75% (T)
$SSEC -1.2% (w) - 11.85% (T)

Chart: $NIKK ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต - the best performing index over (t) duration +6.32%
6a/8

Resource rich countries getting you ๐Ÿ’ฐ

$EWZ +8.75% (w) +35.8% (T)
$EWA +3.15% (w) +6.0% (T)
$EWC +2.05% (w) +6.95% (T)
$EWW +1.9% (w) +7.75% (T)

Chart: $EWW ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Jarabe Tapatio ๐Ÿ’ƒ๐Ÿฝ +7.0% (t) โ™‰๏ธ
7/8

In #FX, the ๐Ÿ’ด continues to get ๐Ÿ”ฅ

$FXY -2.4% (w) -6.35% (T) ๐Ÿป
$FXE -0.65% (w) -3.35% (T)
$FXB +0.02% (w) -1.8% (T)
$FXF +0.15% (w) -1.6% (T)
$UUP +0.6% (w) +2.65% (T)
$FXC +1.0% (w) + 2.65% (T)
$FXA +1.47% (w) +3.68% (T) โ™‰๏ธ

Chart: $FXA +3.97% over (t) duration ๐Ÿฆ˜๐Ÿฆ˜โ™‰๏ธ
8/8

Bond market vigilantes doing #CB work, but yields not โ†—๏ธ enough to attract ๐Ÿ’ฐ from $SPX or $CRB

Quarterly #opex on 3/31 + โ€˜month-end markupโ€™ + systematic rebalancing = possible ๐ŸŒŠ

Stick with ๐Ÿ“ˆ and have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ week!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Mar 25
Hello Friday!

Last night, we hosted a surprise ๐ŸŽ‚ ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿพ for my wife. Sit down dinner with 30 friends and family members.
First time, long time. It felt good!

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Image
Week to date:

$USDJPY +2.68%
$GOLD +1.7%
$AUD +1.36%
$USD +0.58%
$EUR +0.48%

$NATGAS +12.0%
$BRENT +9.5%
$BTC +7.0%
$SILVER +3.3%
$SOYB +1.95%
$COPPER +0.05%
$LUMBER -14.2%

$NIKK +4.8%
$HSI +2.5%
$COMPQ +2.15%
$SPX +1.3%
$CAC -0.95%

$TNX 2.34 +9.0%

$VIX 21.97 -220 BPS
Asia closed the week on a ๐Ÿป ๐ŸŽถ โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 28150 +0.15%
$SSEC 3212 -1.15%
$TWII 17677 -0.1%
$HSI 21405 -2.45%
$KOSPI 2730 unch
$IDX 7003 -0.65%

Australia โ™‰๏ธ โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7406 +0.25%

India ๐Ÿป โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 57309 -0.5%
Read 12 tweets
Mar 18
Hello #OPEX Friday!

Week to Date:

$AUD +1.15%
$USD -1.17%
$GOLD -2.1%
$SILVER -2.1%

$HSI +4.6%
$CAC +5.65%
$NIKK +5.9%
$COMPQ +6.0%

$COPPER +1.65%
$WHEAT -0.1%
$WTIC -7.0%

$TLT -2.3%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia finished the week โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 26827 +0.65%
$SSEC 3251 +1.1%
$TWII 17457 +0.05%
$HSI 21464 -0.15%
$KOSPI 2707 +0.45%
$IDX 6955 -0.15%

Australia โ†—๏ธโ™‰๏ธ
$ASX 7294 +0.6%

India โ†”๏ธ
$BSE closed for Holi
Europe under pressure โ†˜๏ธ at the open

$DAX 14317 -0.5%
$FTSE 7361 -0.3%
$CAC 6569 -0.65%
$AEX 707 -0.1%
$IBEX 8411 unch
$MIB 24182 +0.25%
$SMI 12033 -0.25%
$MOEX closed for ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 32.02 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets
Mar 17
Hello St. Patrick's Day! ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€

Emerging market equities, commodities, and currencies are ๐Ÿป the ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ that are PE Powell and the #FOMC

Let #inflation ๐Ÿƒ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia ๐Ÿš€ for a 2nd day ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€

$NIKK 26653 +3.45%
$SSEC 32115 +1.4%
$TWII 17448 +3.0%
$HSI 21501 +7.05% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2695 +1.35%
$IDX 6964 -0.4%

Australia โ†—๏ธ๐Ÿ€
$ASX 8251 +1.05%

India โ†—๏ธ๐Ÿ€
$BSE 57954 +2.0%
Europe a little more subdued but mostly โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 14410 -0.2%
$FTSE 7305 +0.15%
$CAC 6596 +0.1%
$AEX 707 +0.45%
$IBEX 6410 +0.45%
$MIB 24222 -0.2%
$SMI 11940 +0.35%
$MOEX ๐Ÿช†๐Ÿ’ฅ

$VSTOXX 36.01 ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿ€
Read 11 tweets
Mar 14
Hello Monday!

Big week

Not only are the Ides upon us, but we have both #FOMC and #OPEX to process.

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Mixed ๐Ÿ‘œ in Asia as ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ and ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ ๐Ÿ”’ โ†˜๏ธ ๐Ÿฆ 

$NIKK 25308 +0.6%
$SSEC 3224 -2.6% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
$TWII 17263 unch
$HSI 19541 -4.95% ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ
$KOSPI 2646 -0.6%
$IDX 6952 +0.45%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7149 +1.2%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 59215 +1.2%
Europe opens with a โ†—๏ธ bias

$DAX 13872 +1.8%
$FTSE 7150 -0.05%
$CAC 6288 +0.45%
$AEX 672 -0.45%
$IBEX 8264 +1.5%
$MIB 23313 +1.2%
$SMI 11517 +0.2%
$MOEX closed for ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿช†
Read 11 tweets
Mar 13
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 03/13/22

1/11

Focus on whatโ€™s working - long #inflation ๐Ÿ›ข, #vol ๐ŸŒŠ, and long USD ๐Ÿ’ต

Nothing says these will continue to work, given the geopolitical risk ๐Ÿ’ฅโ˜ฎ๏ธ

But, what choice do you have? Fade it?

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/11

Metals โ†”๏ธ on the week but โ™‰๏ธ -
giving you opportunity long side

$COPPER -6.3%
$PLAT -2.55%
$GOLD +0.95%
$SILVER +1.45%

Chart: $SILVER +11.95% t, +17.85% T, vol 53 (3.3%)๐Ÿ”ป
3/11

Hydrocarbons โ™‰๏ธ pulled back sharply = more opportunity long ๐Ÿ›ขโ›ฝ๏ธ

$GASO -7.35%
$NATGAS -6.0%
$WTIC -5.5%
$BRENT -4.2%

Chart: $DBC +12.28% t, +27.75% (T), vol 50 (3.1%) is over extended but a lower vol way to play commodities
Read 11 tweets
Mar 10
Hello Thursday!

Did everyone enjoy the 1-day โ™‰๏ธ in equities and rejoice in the ๐Ÿป in commodities?

Or, โ€ฆ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Trading on a one-day lag, Asia closed โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 25690 +3.95% โฌ…๏ธ
$SSEC 3296 +1.2%
$TWII 17433 +2.45%
$HSI 20890 +1.25%
$KOSPI 2680 +2.2%
$IDX 6924 +0.85%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7131 +1.1%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 55464 +1.5%
Europe back to ๐Ÿปโ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 13489 -2.6%
$FTSE 7101 -1.25%
$CAC 6232 -2.45%
$AEX 678 -1.5%
$IBEX 8058 -1.5%
$MIB 23138 -3.15%
$SMI 114667 -0.2%
$MOEX closed ๐Ÿช†

$VSOTXX 41.50 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets

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