Speaking w/some contacts in #Russia to try to understand evolving sentiments in society re: #RussiaUkraineWar, 3 factors stand out for me:
1. Adaptive behaviour
2. "Besieged fortress"
3. State propaganda working wonders
A thread. /1
1. Adaptive behaviour
2. "Besieged fortress"
3. State propaganda working wonders
A thread. /1
1. Adaptive behaviour: Many Russians say "what is expected of them" - they support the #Kremlin on #Ukraine. They might (or not!) hold different views privately, but perceived social pressures + fear of reprisal drive adaptive behaviour - so you can best cope in everyday life /2
2. Besieged fortress: Adaptive behaviour is amplified by a sense among many Russians that their isolation& life under sanctions will be for a long time. Plus, whether you wanted the war or not, Russia is now "mobilized" against immense outside pressures. Result: consolidation. /3
3. State propaganda: The sheer masse of detailed counter-narratives & lies thrown at most Russians by state media re #Bucha, alleged #WMD in Ukraine, or the war broadly, produces chains of thought: "The situation's really complicated" -> "We will never really know the truth"../4
...Add to that, "the West often lies, why would we trust their version...?"
Looking for alternative information is possible, but 1. & 2. increasingly mitigate against an openness to learn about (and then live with!) uncomfortable truths /5
Looking for alternative information is possible, but 1. & 2. increasingly mitigate against an openness to learn about (and then live with!) uncomfortable truths /5
It is my sense that these factors 1.-3. now constantly reinforce each other & drive apparent (and growing) support for what many in #Russia - yes, it's hard to believe - still believe is a "special military operation" with limited scope & aim. #RussiaUkraineWar
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