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Dr AK Gupta

@optionurol

Apr 14

@SahilKapoor

A Thread on Debt to GDP Ratio 🧵

The debt-to-GDP ratio compares a country's debt to its total economic output measure by GDP for the year.

This ratio tells how the economy is doing and allows comparison.

Lets Look at where the world stands

@SahilKapoor @dugalira

What does % Mean

>100 : Country not producing enough to pay debt

100 : Just enough to pay off debt

<100: Enough economic output to make debt payments

If The % > 100: Higher risk of default and country will get loan at higher interest rate.

That further perpetuates the cycle by increasing debt —> looming financial crisis

Like the Hedonic Treadmill

Read 11 tweets

Dr AK Gupta

@optionurol

Apr 13

Infosys disappoints in Q4, big miss on Rev and margins
$ Rev growth at 0.7%, CC Rev growth at 1.2% (Est 2.5% - 3%)
EBIT margins are at 21.5% vs 23.5% (est at 23.3%)

FY23 guidance
+Ve: CC Rev growth seen at 13-15%
-Ve: EBIT % seen between 21-23%

#InfosysQ4Results

@Infosys

@Infosys, Attrition > 25%

One of the key Metrics of a stable company is how many employees it can retain...

I wonder what are the reasons for such high attrition.

#Techjobs
#Infosys

Read 4 tweets

Dr AK Gupta

@optionurol

Apr 12

@SubhadipNandy16

#OpenInterest #nifty50 #StockMarket #market #TradingTick

As we enter expiry Day for 13th April Expiry

@SubhadipNandy16 @564pankaj @JustPunforfun @OiPulse @Justsiva123 @BeSensibull @tradeninvestor20 @raggy_k @drkamaljeet @virtual_kg @tradingtick

Last Day EOD OI Data

@optionurol

Million calls still there between 17500 - 17700

With all the churning yesterday 15 million added at 17500 - 17700. Max at 17600, 6.5 million

No unwinding of calls

@optionurol

@optionurol

Nifty Puts

14 million puts between 17300 - 17500

3.5 million added between 17300 - 17500

6.8 million puts unwound from 17500 - 17800, Max 3.1 million at 17700

Result: Put Towers are big, and outnumber Call Towers

PCR: 0.65 (Between 17300 - 17800)

@optionurol

Read 7 tweets

Dr AK Gupta

@optionurol

Apr 6

A Thread 🧵 on Yield Spread.

#FOMC
#BondYield
#Inflation
#Recession
#fintwit

1/14

The U.S. Treasury yield spread is the difference between the Fed's short-term borrowing rate and the rate on longer-term U.S. Treasury notes.

2/14

The width of the yield spread helps to predict the state of the economy over the course of the next year.

Investors analyze the shape of the yield curve and the changes to its shape to gain a sense of economic expectations.

3/14

Read 22 tweets

Dr AK Gupta

@optionurol

Apr 6

Not entirely my Take, have added my views too

Indian FM - “The FIIs and FPIs “may come and go” but Indian retail investors have proven that they are ready for any shock that may come in, given the “shock-absorbing capacity the Indian retailer has brought into the Indian market”

*What NS is not telling is that this is direct outcome of artificially low interest rates. *.

Such low rates does not give any other opportunities for the common man to beat inflation but investing in the stock market.

Which in turn is helping already billionaires.

And at the cost of poor who are paying inflation tax from his nose as he as nothing available to invest.

So all is not rosy for the common man. We who have the knowledge and capacity to invest wisely, can benefit from the stock market but not general population.

Read 4 tweets

Dr AK Gupta

@optionurol

Apr 6

@JustPunforfun

Today minutes of March meeting of Federal reserve will be released which are expected to provide fresh details on its plans to reduce its bond holdings.

Next FOMC meeting is May. First week, May 3 - 4.

@JustPunforfun @564pankaj @tradeninvestor @virtual_kg

#FOMC
#Inflation

Hike of 0.5% in May, June and July expected along with rapid runoff of $9 Trillion balance sheet.

That is why 10Y bond yields are going crazy.

#Bonds

In a recent paper Harvard University's Larry Summers noted that since 1955 there has never been a time when wage growth exceeded 5% and the unemployment rate was below 5% that was not followed within two years by a recession.

#Recession

Read 5 tweets

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