Thread by @NKobserver

1/11 - These past 2 weeks some unprecedented developments have taken place directly related to #NagornoKarabakh (NK):

▪️#Armenia-#Azerbaijan leaders meet EU counterpart
▪️Direct phone call between Armenia-Azerbaijan MFAs
▪️Minsk Group essentially disappears
▪️...
#russia

2/11 - On 06 April Arm. and Az. leaders meet w/ their EU counterpart, goal to create a bilateral committee for border delimitation (straying away from a trilateral one with Russia as mediator). NK did not appear to occupy a significant place in the discussions. (1, 2)

3/11 - On 11 April Arm-Az MFA's held a direct telephone conversation, possibly the first one ever (if not the first one in decades), discussing border delimitation, preparation for peace negotiations and humanitarian matters. (3, 4)

4/11 - The OSCE Minsk Group headed by the US, France and Russia in charge of monitoring the conflict since 1992 appears to no longer exist. The US and France refuse the cooperate with RU due to the Ukraine crisis, RU assigned its own representative to deal with the matter. (5)

5/11 - De facto NK authorities have expressed disagreement and worry with Armenia signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan that can affect Armenians in NK. In their words, Armenia is reducing criteria for a peace agreement, now considering NK as part of Azerbaijan (6)

6/11 - In general, it appears that Armenia's leadership seeking a direct peace deal with Azerbaijan is no longer pursuing the security and self-determination of Armenians in Karabakh as part of a state doctrine in place since the 1990s. With Karabakh itself excluded from all...

7/11 - ...negotiations, any peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan will most likely be between those two countries and will not find any implementation in NK. Relations between Yerevan and NK have reached an all time low, almost no cooperation between...

8/11 - the leadership structures or parliament anymore, and for obvious reasons no relations exist with Baku. Russian peacekeepers appear to be the only security guarantee for Armenians in what remains of NK. Recent bilateral developments between Armenia and Azerbaijan...

9/11 - suggest that these two are trying to sideline Russia pursuing direct bilateral contact with EU help without Moscow's mediation. Quite a complicated situation: Armenians divided, Russia...

10/11 - and the West busy with the Ukraine crisis, the only stable thing remains Az. state doctrine on NK, considering it an integral part of its territory. Without Yerevan's attention, Baku's goals might just be reached, but...

11/11 - ...NK is no longer dependent on Armenia, but on Russia for its security and literal existence. As long as Russian peacekeepers remain in NK, Azerbaijan cannot establish full military control over the remaining territory.

KEY TAKEAWAYS - NK's situation is even more complicated than before, we are now seeing an Armenia ready to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan to the detriment of NK, when only 4 years ago Armenia and NK were on the same line. A lot of new factors come into play, the issue...

...remains unresolved. Arm-Az peace agreement possibly aimed at sidelining Russia, may not necessarily affect NK as a whole, which remains isolated from Armenian and Azeri jurisdiction (neither really have political or administrative control over what remains of NK.)

Sources:

1.primeminister.am/hy/press-relea…
2.mfa.gov.az/az/news/no16422
3.mfa.gov.az/az/news/no17422
4.mfa.am/hy/press-relea…
5.ria.ru/20220408/mid-1…
6.facebook.com/ArtsakhInforma…