Thread by @mortymer001

About #Transnistria, #Moldova, #Nato and #Russia. A small🧵

But lets start with Georgia first!

During NATO's 2008 Bucharest summit in Bucharest, United States and Poland called for Georgia to be allowed to join the Membership Action Plan (MAP). A roadmap was set. (1/N)

The issue with accession articles and preambles is that implicitly no country without full control of its borders can join the alliance.

Let it sink.

Neither Georgia, Ukraine nor Moldova can join NATO without solving their territorial issues.

Internal conflicts matter. (2/N)

In Georgia it is #Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
In Ukraine it is #Crimea, #Donbas and #Lugansk regions.
In #Moldova it is #Transnitria.

Note that Russia has been for years working hard on their border issues.

Escalation in new member conflict zone would trigger art5. (3/10)

Is Russia expansive? Historically it is. But the definition what this means would need another thread. So nobody would agree letting Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova in without border issues fixed.

These Frozen conflicts are by design.
They are preventing accession to #NATO.
(4/10)

So is Russia building and resurrecting empire?

Russia is NOT proposing for Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria to join their RF.

-> So clearly NO, these rebellious separatist regions with their Russian minorities are soft safety-measures against #NATO expansion.
(5/10)

Both Moldova and Georgia are buffer zones, states which can not join NATO

Many people claim that RF attacked unprovoked UA. Many claim it was for Fascism. And other because of the 14k murdered.

Remember RF calling on UA and Western partners to abide to Minsk agreements? (6/10)

I claim that the main reason why RF attacked UA because they tried to solve THE issue which was blocking their NATO accession.

In Feb 2018 Ukrainian president signs "Donbass reintegration law".

It labels the areas not controlled by Kiev as "temporarily occupied". (7/10)

It also empowers the president with the right to use armed forces inside the country.

Since 2018 UA has made advance steps into taking these regions back by power.

In Nov 2021 UA and US signed this Strategic partnership agreement:
state.gov/u-s-ukraine-ch…

Both UA and UA proclaim full commitment to fight together Russia:

The USA commits to arm and train Ukraine military:

Confirming that the goal is Ukraine to join NATO and a conflict with Russia (note: "attempted annexation"):

USA on assisting UA integration into NATO structure before the accession is finalized.

(Remember Putin=s statement, that UA is not yet official member but functionally and operationally de-facto undeclared member):

US support UA to integrate Ukraine fully into European and Euro-Atlantic structures....

Human rights abuses issues were also mentioned but it seems this part of the agreement is already forgotten (abuse of POV, citizens, racism, broken rule of law, political freedom,...)

...so how does this connect to Moldova, Transnistria again?

On 27 Apr 2022 — Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița has said the country does not want to join NATO, which Russia would perceive as a direct threat.

Russia also does not officially recognize Transnistria as an independent

Yet the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria prevents Moldova from fully controlling its own borders country.

Unless somebody will want to "unfreeze" this status quo the country is in no danger. END