1/7
On #defence and #security policy choices in the #IndoPacific :
I recently produced research assessing how 12 nations are aligning, looking at defence spending, arms imports, military exercises, intel sharing, and force presence agreements.
Who balances against #China?
On #defence and #security policy choices in the #IndoPacific :
I recently produced research assessing how 12 nations are aligning, looking at defence spending, arms imports, military exercises, intel sharing, and force presence agreements.
Who balances against #China?
2/7
Looking at trends in the values of stocks of imported #armaments, #Vietnam and #Indonesia seem clearly to be balancing against #China, whereas #Malaysia drops off strongly, suggesting #bandwagoning. Singapore stable.
Looking at trends in the values of stocks of imported #armaments, #Vietnam and #Indonesia seem clearly to be balancing against #China, whereas #Malaysia drops off strongly, suggesting #bandwagoning. Singapore stable.
3/7
A statistical analysis on trends in stocks of imported armaments shows most countries with a break (a change) around the year 2014 - this is consistent with threat perceptions towards #China going up around 2012.
A statistical analysis on trends in stocks of imported armaments shows most countries with a break (a change) around the year 2014 - this is consistent with threat perceptions towards #China going up around 2012.
4/7
It gets interesting with data on multinational military exercises - since around 2012, military exercises involving U.S. Allies in the region begin to attract new partner nations, and exercise scenarios orient more towards high intensity warfare.
It gets interesting with data on multinational military exercises - since around 2012, military exercises involving U.S. Allies in the region begin to attract new partner nations, and exercise scenarios orient more towards high intensity warfare.
5/7
Similarly with Force Presence Agreements (Status of Forces / Visiting Forces / Reciprocal Access), some interesting developments post 2012, notably involving #Japan - with #Australia and most recently the #UK
Similarly with Force Presence Agreements (Status of Forces / Visiting Forces / Reciprocal Access), some interesting developments post 2012, notably involving #Japan - with #Australia and most recently the #UK
6/7
And at the same time, total defence spending in the region hasn't gone through large shifts if measured as a percentage of GDP - that was the initial research puzzle. But pulling in additional indicators helps make sense of the regional picture.
And at the same time, total defence spending in the region hasn't gone through large shifts if measured as a percentage of GDP - that was the initial research puzzle. But pulling in additional indicators helps make sense of the regional picture.
7/7
The paper is published with the journal Defence and Peace Economics and is available Open Access.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
The paper is published with the journal Defence and Peace Economics and is available Open Access.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
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