#Pakistan's #Imports of mobile phones on a monthly basis fell from $124M in FY21 to $27M in FY22.
πππHowever....
#Pakistan's #imports of Completely Knocked Down (CDK) kits of #mobile phones increased from $52.8M to $110.2M in the same period.
Overall, #imports of mobiles + CKD #mobiles did not change on a monthly basis, between FY21 and FY22 (177M versus 174M) ππ
What I conclude: 1) The #import substitution argument to save #dollars is weak. 2) As I learned from @ashraf179, no forex saving, but foregone revenue: duties on parts are lower than on the final product. 3) There may be a job gain, but limited.
A month ago I wrote this 𧡠on why #import duties were not the answer to #Pakistan's Balance of Payments constraints. #ImportBans are certainly not the answer either. Rather, they exacerbate the underlying problem. Five thoughts. π§΅π
1\ The usual: CAD results from a macro imbalance (Saving too low relative to investment, so foreign saving needed (borrowing) (CAD is the mirror image of borrowing from the rest of the world (financial account of BOP)). Fixing the CAD takes increasing saving (cool off demand).
Thank you for the feedback, dear Yousuf. If you read the article carefully, you will see this is specific & data driven. A short thread to explain. πππ
Figure 2 in the article is built from a careful analysis combining micro-level *data* from all listed firms in Pakistan, & effective rates of protection (calculated based on FBR data on import duties and the latest input output *data* from IFPRI. It conveys the key message. π
Figure 3 comes from a careful econometric analysis we did w/@StefaniaLovo in which we recover markups from the data, and estimated systematic effects of changes in #import duties on these markups. It conveys the key message. π
Fast #import growth has overshadowed some very good news in #Pakistan. The latest release of disaggregated #trade data by @StateBank_Pak reveals that the first nine months of FY22 showed #record high #exports in real terms, since there's statistics.
Short π§΅π w/ more results.
1\ #exports grew by 24.8% in the first 9 months of FY22 w.r.t. same period of FY21, reaching 23.7 bn for goods and 5.2 bn for services.
1\ The #CAD is the result of a Saving/Investment imbalance. The sustainable solution to the #CAD entails policies that increase #saving.
2\ #Import duties might be a patch that in the short run curbs imports, but they will curb #exports too. Why? B/C they increase the profitability to sell at home, so firms shift from export to domestic markets. Import duties are implicit #export taxes. They won't reduce the CAD.
With @StateBank_Pak releasing dissaggregated #trade data for December, we have a picture of the full 2021, which, despite #supply#chain disruptions worldwide, was 'good' for #Pakistan. Short thread below:
1\ #exports grew by 30.1% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020, with a strong pick up in merchandise, but also substantive in services.
On May 26th @StateBank_Pak released #Pakistan's disaggregated #trade statistics for April '21. We now have 10 months of the FY21. Some analysis in #thread below. πππ