Thread by @generalsvr_en

#Putin's decision to facilitate the issuance of Russian passports in #Kherson & #Zaporizhzhya regions of #Ukraine isn't spontaneous. This decision has been on the table for at least 2 months and has been transformed & postponed given the objective situation on the front
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Moreover, #Putin's plans for the annexation of several regions of #Ukraine to #Russia are a resolved matter and these plans are constantly discussed at closed-door meetings in various formats with the participation of the President
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Now the main goal #Putin has set for the military is to reach the admin borders of #Donetsk & #Luhansk regions and, if possible, #Kherson & #Zaporizhzhya regions of Ukraine
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After reaching the admin borders of #Donetsk & #Luhansk regions, diplomatic recognition of the occupied territories of #Zaporizhzhya & #Kherson regions with subsequent access to their administrative borders is planned
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After the capture and annexation of these 4 regions of #Ukraine, #Putin plans to begin a "peace negotiation process". The "peace process" is meant to be a cover for preparations for the annexation of the #Kharkiv, #Mykolayiv and #Odesa regions of Ukraine, as well as #Moldova
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After failed "peace talks", the #Kremlin plans to further seize the aforementioned regions & A SERIES OF HYBRID OPERATIONS in EUROPE with direct threats to use #nukes, which will come from the Kremlin leadership. To create a split in the #EU & #NATO is the #Putin's idée fixe
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The war has been showing that the implementation of #Putin's plans fails in the very first days. Not a clear understanding of the reality but promises of the leadership of the military & security blocs give Putin the confidence that these and other plans will be implemented
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#Putin has now almost completely recovered after the failed start the war. Having replaced some of the military leadership of the operation, including Gerasimov & Shoigu, who only nominally remain in their positions, he hopes for the success promised by the new leadership
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The threat of a nuclear strike is the higher the closer #Putin comes to realising his plans, and vice versa, the closer the failure of his plans, the more futile the use of #nukes is for Putin & his entourage, who will play an major role in making and realising this decision
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We appeal to some Western politicians: sometimes it is worth trusting your intelligence rather than your fears, which can easily be confused with rationality
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