1. #IK continues to stay in KP & his convention was attended by 300 workers showing as if he becomes a Wali Khan (of ANP).
2. Basing KP 4 his political activities is by default evaporating Punjabi voters in Punjab.
A
3. Punjabi voters can never accept a Pashtun Khan from KP as their leader, which he is NOT. 4. Yet keeping focused in KP and remaining in Peshawar, IK has created doubts among Punjabi voters. #PMLN is cashing in on saying:".....
B
... he was only bringing some supporters from a province ie #KP". 5. He already alienated #Punjabi Bureaucracy through Azam Khan who was supporting ethnic Pashtun/KP bureaucracy. Major postings in Punjab, #JB & even #AJK belonged 2 KP province. END
#THREAD #SSgovt's economic performance & narrative challenge
🔴🔴🔴
Barely 3 weeks in Office, SS govt did great job on economy but struggled on narrative. 1. It immediately convinced #IMF on package & broad contour of the deal.
Only it has 2 give plan 4 staggered...
a/n
.... reduction on subsidies by May 18. a/n
2. SS govt also reached out 2 #KSA: roll over & oil deferred payment. Small prints finalized soon. Solid support guaranteed.
3. #UAE also agreed 2 request of SS govt; details finalized.
🇨🇳’s move into #Laddakh & establishing a hold over Galwan river valley comes after 🇮🇳 coerced Nepal by encroaching it’s border territory & reviving Kalapani dispute.
1/
China says that #India actually encroached in its territory. The similar holding over of river valley led to 1962 war between India and China.
What strategic compulsion weighed in behind the Chinese move?
2. Post Aug 5 annexation of IOK w/ 🇮🇳-n intention 2 turn Laddakh into union territory rattled 🇨🇳 that 🇮🇳 is materially changing status of th region contested by🇨🇳& 🇵🇰.
3/
(i) 🇮🇷 pushes 2 populate UAE islands occupied by Tehran;
(ii) succeeds 2 make look US forces vulnerable by “harassment”;
(iii) assertively claiming....2/
....."ownership" of the Gulf.
(iv) making new claims, re Bahrain & Kuwait;
(v) US retrenched it’s leadership when 🇮🇷 sponsored an attack on KSA’s installation.
2 big obstacles 4 GCC 2 normalise ties w/ #Israel were:
(A) ground swell public opinion &
(B) Palestinian cause
3/
I ll address narco issue first:
Illicit drug trade originates from #Afghanistan; is worth up 2 $70B yearly in #UK streets; up to $3 bill is invested back in region rest end up in western banks. 2/
Porous border is used 4 narco logistics/route.
Drugs cartel funds terrorism, & warlordism & mafias in border regions of 🇦🇫, 🇵🇰 & 🇮🇷; they have influence in weak state like 🇦🇫 & desperate elements in structures in Iran 🇮🇷 who do not want stringent border between 🇮🇷 & 🇵🇰.
3/